Why severe weather events will occur in 2024

NEW DELHI: The World Meteorological Organization warned on Tuesday that despite a trend of diminishing, the El Nino that peaked in 2023–24 as one of the five greatest on record would still have an influence on the global climate in the months to come. Additionally, the UN agency said that practically all land regions are expected to see above-normal temperatures between March and May.
Global record temperatures and severe weather occurrences were fueled by the existing El Nino conditions, with 2023 being the hottest year on record.

In January, the global mean temperature broke the 1.5-degree Celsius mark for the first time in a year, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
However, long-term warming over a number of years is referred to as a permanent violation of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit, as stated in the Paris Agreement.

According to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) most recent report, there is around a 60% probability that El Nino will continue from March to May and an 80% chance that neutral conditions—that is, neither El Nino nor La Nina—will prevail from April to June.
It said that there is a potential that La Nina will form later in the year, although those chances are still unknown.

According to scientists who are actively monitoring the situation in India, if La Nina conditions occur by June or August, the monsoon rains this year might be greater than in 2023.
An El Nino, which is a periodic warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, usually lasts nine to twelve months and happens every two to seven years on average.
It is linked to exceptionally dry and warm weather in Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa, as well as enhanced rainfall in the Horn of Africa and the southern US.

“Since June 2023, every month has seen a new monthly temperature high—and 2023 was by far the hottest year ever recorded. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, “Heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unquestionably the main culprit.” El Nino has contributed to these record temperatures.
The equatorial Pacific’s ocean surface temperatures unmistakably show the effects of El Nino. However, during the previous ten months, sea surface temperatures have been consistently and abnormally high in other regions of the world. By far the greatest sea-surface temperature ever recorded for January was recorded in January 2024. El Nino by itself cannot account for this, which is concerning,” she said.
According to scientists, El Nino usually has the most effect on the climate during its second year of development, or in this case, 2024.
According to a Global Seasonal Climate Update released by the WMO, the ongoing, albeit weaker, El Nino and predicted above-normal sea-surface temperatures over most of the world’s oceans are expected to result in above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas in the next three months and influence regional rainfall patterns.
November and January are when the current El Nino phenomenon, which began in June 2023, is at its peak. Its maximum value was around 2.0 degrees Celsius higher than the average sea-surface temperature for the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean from 1991 to 2020. Despite being weaker than the El Nino occurrences of 1997–1998 and 2015–2016, this made it one of the five strongest El Nino episodes in history.
Although El Nino mostly affects seasonal climate averages, it may also increase the likelihood of severe weather and climate events in certain areas.
According to the WMO, seasonal predictions are more accurate during El Nino and La Nina occurrences, especially in the tropics. This highlights the critical role that early warnings play in assisting with decision-making, improving readiness, and fostering anticipatory action.
“Economies and society are significantly impacted by El Nino occurrences. The WMO community’s accurate seasonal predictions assisted nations in planning ahead to attempt to prevent harm in areas like agriculture, water resources, and health that are vulnerable to climate change. Numerous lives have been saved by early warnings of El Nino-related weather and climate extremes, according to WMO’s Saulo.