By FY30, per capita income is projected to increase by over 70% to $4,000

According to a study estimate, the nation’s per capita income is predicted to increase by about 70% to USD 4,000 by fiscal 2030 from USD 2,450 in fiscal 2023, helping it become a middle-income economy with USD 6 trillion in GDP, of which more than half would come from family spending.

From USD 460 in the fiscal year 2001 to USD 1,413 in the next year and then to USD 2,150 in the following year, per capita income/GDP has increased.

 

According to Standard Chartered Bank in a weekend research that forecasts nominal GDP growth of 10% yearly moving forward, foreign trade, which may almost quadruple to USD 2.1 trillion by 2030 from USD 1.2 trillion in fiscal 2023 when the GDP came in at USD 3.5 trillion, would be the main growth engine.

 

The analysis predicts that household consumption would expand from USD 2.1 trillion in fiscal 2023 to USD 3.4 trillion in fiscal 2030, which is equivalent to the present size of the GDP. Currently, household spending accounts for up to 57% of GDP.

 

After the US and China, the Indian economy would rank third with a GDP of USD 5 trillion, according to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s declaration from last week. Germany is now in position four, while Japan is in position three.

 

The analysis predicted that nine states, rather than just one, will eventually reach the upper middle income nation rank with per capita incomes of USD 4,000.

 

Telangana now holds the top spot in the league table for per capita income, with Rs 2,75,443 or USD 3,360 in FY23. Karnataka is next with Rs 2,65,623, Tamil Nadu with Rs 2,41,131, Kerala with Rs 2,30,601, and Andhra Pradesh with Rs 2,07,771.

 

By fiscal 2030, however, the StanC research has Gujarat in the forefront, followed by Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Haryana, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh. The other three states were not mentioned in the study either.

 

Telangana, Delhi, Karnataka, Haryana, Gujarat, and Andhra collectively contribute for 20% of the country’s GDP now; by fiscal 2030, they will each have a per-capita GDP of USD 6,000.

 

Contrarily, big states UP and Bihar, which together account for 25% of the population, would still have per capita income below USD 2,000 in fiscal 2030, even if that figure is still double what it was in fiscal 2020.

 

The consumer market will still be the same size as the economy today even if household consumption expenditures decline by 1% from their current proportion of GDP (which accounts for 57% of GDP).

 

The greater proportion of the population that is of working age will continue to be the primary growth facilitator. In 2020, 64.2 percent of the population in the nation was of working age. This percentage will increase to 64.8 percent, then maybe slightly decline to 63.6 percent in 2040 and 61.1 percent in 2050.

 

By using capital effectively and ensuring that the number of people who are working age continues to grow, this will aid the economy. However, a continually declining employment rate is a hindrance to the expansion of real GDP per capita.

 

Other growth accelerators mentioned in the paper include macrostability, a sound financial system, corporate sector deleveraging, and public capex initiatives.