Opinion | The Reasons the BJP-Led NDA Appear to Have an Edge in the 2024 Elections
With the completion of four stages and with three left, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have reached halfway. The main topic of conversation throughout this election has been low voter participation; however, in the fourth phase, this trend changed with a little rise in the proportion of voters who turned out compared to 2019.
In the midst of this, opposition politicians have begun to assert that the BJP is losing members. Days after declaring that the BJP will win 180 seats, Congressman Rahul Gandhi changed his prediction to 150 seats. TMC chief and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee handed the BJP more seats—195 at most—than Rahul, who seems to be quite tight about the BJP’s numbers. When it comes to giving the BJP numerical weight, AAP leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal seems to be more lenient than Gandhi and Banerjee. According to his prediction, the saffron party may win 220 seats.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted this month at an election rally in Krishnanagar, West Bengal, that people have decided that the BJP-led NDA is poised to secure not only 370 seats but is looking forward to crossing the 400 mark, despite the opposition leaders’ best efforts to spread the word that the BJP is even struggling to cross the 200 mark. Politicians often make these kinds of statements to galvanize their grassroots supporters and draw in swing votes during election seasons.
However, what attracted notice were the assertions made by some political experts and journalists, stating that even the NDA could find it difficult to get a majority on its own and that the BJP is unlikely to succeed in doing so. Based on his “ground assessment,” phenomenologist turned political activist Yogendra Yadav has assigned the BJP around 233 seats and the NDA roughly 268.
A REVIEW OF THE ELECTION OF 2019
Let’s take a look back to the 2019 Lok Sabha election before analyzing the current one, since many journalists and political pundits often bring it up these days. This section claims that, in contrast to the 2019 election, which they claim was won by the BJP-led NDA with a sizable mandate due to the nationalist surge sparked by the Pulwama terror incident and the Balakot airstrike, this year’s election lacks a dominating narrative. It’s interesting to note that at one point in the election campaign, someone called 2019 “a waveless election.” However, after the results, they came to the conclusion that Modi’s second term was only possible due to the chance presented by the Pulwama terror incident.
Because of the flaws in this reasoning, a review of the 2019 elections is required. Only 0.4% of voters cited the Pulwama terror incident and the Balakot airstrike as significant concerns while casting their ballots, according to the Lokniti-CSDS post-poll analysis. According to the study, 14.3% of respondents said that development was a significant concern. Next on the list of concerns for 11.3 percent of voters was unemployment. Additional concerns included price increases, corruption, economic expansion, water-related challenges, etc. Even though these numbers have been available to the public for the last five years, it is astounding that certain renowned journalists and political analysts in our nation believe that Pulwama and Balakot were the primary factors in the 2019 election results.
Despite discontent, MODI continues to be well-liked.
In April, Lokniti-CSDS conducted a pre-poll study pertaining to the 2024 elections. The results indicated a decline of around 8.1% in the respondents’ satisfaction with the Modi administration, which is concerning for the BJP. Increasing unemployment (12.2%), rising prices (7.6%), and declining income (4.1%) are some of the key concerns that voters care about, according to the study. Additionally, the pre-poll study notes that, in comparison to the 2019 pre-poll survey, support for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi as the future prime minister has increased by almost 5% to 26.5%. It’s interesting to see that support for Narendra Modi, the future prime minister, has increased by 2% to 47.5%. Ten years of anti-incumbency have not changed this.
REASONS NARENDRA MODI IS STILL FAMOUS
It’s common to hear political pundits and media argue that the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya is unrelated to the polls. First of all, Ram Mandir is a sentimental object for Hindus; this is not an issue for a certain election. Nevertheless, it remains a problem for this election. The pre-election study indicates that 7.5 percent of voters consider Ram Mandir to be a significant issue when casting their ballots, while an additional 2.3 percent of voters cite Hindutva as a significant issue. Though a small percentage of them may be anti-Hindutva voters, it is evident that the BJP’s Hindutva agenda continues to be a major influence for 9.8% of voters in this election.
27.3% of voters still cite unemployment as their top concern when casting a ballot. It is incorrect to assume, nevertheless, that all voters who identify unemployment as a significant concern are anti-BJP. Liberals and Leftists call those who support the Modi-led BJP “blind” to concerns like rising prices and unemployment. Remarkably, 9.1% of respondents listed employment as their favorite aspect of the Modi administration, ranking second only to Ram Mandir in the pre-election survey. This indicates that some people think the Modi administration has been making progress in addressing unemployment, despite the fact that it remains a pressing concern.
Price increases rank second in importance among voters, indicated by 23.4% of them, behind unemployment. It is noteworthy that the Congress-led UPA won more seats and came to power in 2009, even though price increases were a major campaign theme. This is not an attempt to downplay people’s disenchantment with the Modi administration over price increases. However, infrastructure-related projects and social programs, which 18.1% of voters named as the greatest change since Modi took office, are probably going to help the government mitigate the effects of this disappointment and keep it from translating into votes against the BJP-led NDA.
MODI IS FAMILIAR WITH THE GROUND TRUTH
Narendra Modi’s election speeches criticising the Congress-led Opposition for appeasing Muslims have angered liberals and leftists. They contend that this is not a big deal. Although wealth redistribution is not mentioned in the Congress platform, a pre-poll study conducted by CSDS-Lokniti indicates that some voters are concerned about measures that specifically target Muslim populations. 47.3 percent of respondents agreed, but 32.2 percent opposed and 20.4 percent did not react to the poll on Muslims being unduly pampered. Nearly half of the voters questioned expressed reservations about Modi’s speeches on Muslim appeasement, which were directed at the Opposition and Congress in particular. The speeches also attempted to appeal to those who were still unsure.
NDA PRIOR TO THE OPPOSITION?
The Samajwadi Party-Congress coalition and the BSP make up the Opposition, which is behind the BJP-led NDA in Uttar Pradesh, the state with the highest electoral stakes. Despite its weakness, Mayawati’s party has the ability to divide anti-BJP support. In addition, four out of the five OBC-based parties—the Jayant Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal, the Om Prakash Rajbhar-led Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, the Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) party, and the Jan Janwadi Party—deserted, undermining the SP’s experiment to form a social alliance with smaller caste-based parties, which had some success in the 2022 state Assembly elections. RLD and SBSP are the two who have enrolled in the NDA. The NDA is hoping to gain seats this time around, having won 64 of the 80 seats before.
The fall in popularity of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has made the Janata Dal (United) a weak point for the NDA in the state, where the NDA almost swept with 39 of 40 seats. However, people are also aware that Modi is the major candidate in this election, not Nitish.
States like Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Haryana, and West Bengal could lose a few seats here and there, while Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Northeast, Telangana, and perhaps Tamil Nadu might witness gains for the BJP and NDA. In the event that this occurs, the BJP’s vote total could decrease, but it is unlikely to drop below 272, with the NDA probably surpassing 300. This time, the Telugu Desam Party of Chandrababu Naidu is probably going to provide the NDA a sizable increase in seats.
By mathematical calculations, the BJP won 224 seats with over 50% of the vote in 2019. Swing does occur, but it requires strong opposition on the ground. With the exception of Uttar Pradesh, the Congress, which is mostly running against the BJP across the Hindi belt, lacks a robust and engaged organization. It is doubtful that using social media to create a mahaul (environment) just during election season would aid in voter turnout. The BJP-led NDA, which has been active in the field far in advance of the election season, already has a dearth of opposition. It seems that even the opposition is unsure of their statements that the saffron party would lose the polls, based on Kejriwal’s recent remarks that the BJP may win 220 seats, which would still make the party the single biggest party. This conveys the idea that the BJP is likely to win, and it is this idea that will probably contribute to the BJP’s gain in floating votes.
The opposition has been able to mitigate this view to some degree as the election season draws near, but will this translate into votes against the BJP, and if so, to what degree? Will it be equal to the threshold needed to stop the BJP’s crushing power? This is still a crucial question. Undoubtedly, the anti-Modi wave is more unified than it was before the 2019 elections, but there is also a quiet pro-Modi wave that hasn’t really lost much of its ground support.
