The world of tennis has been waiting for this day and this particular showdown. Since Rafael Nadal’s surprising retirement over a month ago, Novak Djokovic has been predicted to win his third Roland Garros championship and a record 23rd Grand Slam. However, the 2023 French Open draw release indicated that his toughest challenge wasn’t even in the championship match. Carlos Alcaraz, the current US Open winner and world No. 1, was picked to face Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. Alcaraz is regarded as the Big Three’s successor apparent and a perfect amalgam of the three all-time greats of men’s singles tennis. The date was set, and tennis fans across the globe were waiting with bated breath. Following the two generational stars’ overwhelming performances in Paris, the blockbuster semifinal showdown—possibly the most eagerly awaited match of the year—became a reality.
It is difficult to believe that the top two players on the tour have seldom ever played in the same draw. Alcaraz, fresh off his US Open victory, was expected to be Djokovic’s biggest obstacle at the Australian Open in January, but the Spaniard withdrew due to an injury. There was a possible final showdown later in Rome, but neither player ever advanced that far. But the long-awaited connection is now a reality thanks to Paris.
They have only ever met once on the circuit, when Alcaraz, who had recently defeated Rafael Nadal, came back from a set down to defeat the Serb in a three-set semifinal match at the 2022 Madrid Open. We examine the potential elements that might give Alcaraz the advantage over the 22-time Grand Slam champion on Friday before of their tense match on Court Philippe Chatrier.
Djokovic is often one of the best players in a run as far as reaching the semifinals of a Grand Slam. If not the best, it is certainly much above the average for the competition and intimidating enough to make a rival nervous. However, this year’s numbers in Paris have been modest. Though not alarmingly low, it was lower by his standards. The worrying element has not been the number of first serves won. Djokovic is in first place with a 74% winning rate in that category, but the second serve won has been the benchmark. Although his 54% success rate behind second serve is higher than the competition’s average of 49, it is still significantly lower, particularly when up against someone like Alcaraz, who has a success rate of 62.
Alcaraz’s astounding domination in shorter rallies (0–4 strokes) has been one of the most important factors in his march to the semifinals. His victory rate of 62 from 515 points played in 0–4 strokes is much better than Djokovic’s 55.8–percent from 589 points. However, the Serb dominated the rallies of 5-8 shots and 9+ shots, suggesting that Alcaraz has to be cautious about adhering to his first-strike tennis model.
Alcaraz’s usage of drop shots during his run has been another significant factor. Alcaraz has been masterful in his use of the weapon, dishing it out whenever he catches the opponent too far back. But in the semi-final, Alcaraz will meet a foe unlike any he has encountered in the previous 12 months, much alone throughout the competition. Djokovic is not only one of the finest players at moving around the court, but he is also excellent at blocking drop shots. The 20-year-old must thus use it precisely to the letter.
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