ASEAN is ‘very worried’ about the rising violence in Myanmar

Following violent altercations over a vital business center on the Thai border, the regional group ASEAN declared itself “deeply concerned” about the recent spike in conflict in Myanmar.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ foreign ministers called on “all parties for an immediate cessation of violence” in Myanmar, a country that has been engulfed in bloodshed ever since the military took control in a coup in February 2021.

The 10-member ASEAN was expressed as “deeply concerned over the recent escalation of conflicts, including in the area of Myawaddy” in a statement released by the ministers late on Thursday.

After fighting for days against the Karen National Union (KNU), an armed ethnic minority that has been there for a while, and other anti-junta rebels, the military was last week forced to evacuate its soldiers from their positions at the important trade post.

After losing many battles in recent months, this was the junta’s most recent setback. Some observers warn that this represents the junta’s greatest danger to yet.

In the 12 months leading up to April, more than $1.1 billion worth of commerce went through Myawaddy, making it crucial to the financially beleaguered junta.

People were forced to escape the fighting into Thailand, where they heard explosions of artillery fire and shooting.

Since then, there haven’t been any significant conflicts in the town, although violence continues to rage at Kawkareik, which is located on the main highway about 30 kilometers (20 miles) southwest of Myawaddy.

Analysts believe that after the humiliating surrender of over 2,000 soldiers in the town of Laukkai on the border with northern China in January, the junta is desperate to avoid losing another significant town.

Conflicts have spread to formerly tranquil areas of the nation, but experts believe the reversals do not yet signal the junta’s imminent demise.

Regarding the battles in Myawaddy, independent Myanmar researcher David Mathieson told AFP, “in the larger scheme of things, the regime is clearly losing control of many areas in the periphery,”

Employing the official name of the junta, “there is still a long way to go for the SAC to fall,” he said.

No advancement

Despite leading diplomatic attempts to defuse the situation, ASEAN has not produced much progress; a local monitoring organization reports that the military crackdown has resulted in over 4,400 deaths and almost 20,000 detentions.

Since the group reached a consensus on a five-point peace plan in 2021, which Myanmar ratified but has not yet carried out, not much has changed.

Divergent responses to the situation have also caused conflict amongst ASEAN countries, with some, like Thailand, which shares a 2,400-kilometer (1,490-mile) border with Myanmar, seeming more inclined to participate.

Although the foreign minister of Thailand issued a warning that it would not put up with any infringement of its sovereignty, the country has said that it is prepared to accept refugees from Myanmar.

Prior to this, the situation in Myanmar had prompted a reaction from Thailand, which in 2022 sent jet aircraft in response to junta planes crossing the border while conducting operations against anti-coup forces.