China’s population is declining for the second year in a row because to COVID-19 fatalities and a record low birth rate

In 2023, China’s population declined for a second year in a row due to a record low birth rate and a wave of COVID-19 fatalities after the lifting of strict lockdown restrictions. This raised questions about the long-term repercussions on the capacity for development of the second-largest economy in the world. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s overall population fell to 1.409 billion last year, a 0.2% decrease of 2.75 million.

In 2022, there was a notable decrease in population of around 850,000, which was noted as the largest since 1961, during the Great Famine under the leadership of the late Chinese leader Mao Zedong. After three years of strict screening and quarantine procedures that kept the virus mostly controlled until officials unexpectedly relaxed limitations in December 2022, China saw a massive countrywide COVID rise early last year.

2023 saw a 6.6% increase in overall fatalities to 11.1 million, as the mortality rate hit its highest point since the Cultural Revolution in 1974. In addition, the birth rate in China plummeted to a historic low of 6.39 births per 1,000 people, down from 6.77 births in 2022, and new births decreased by 5.7% to 9.02 million.

The decline in births was a reflection of the declining birth rate, which has long been a social and economic issue in China. The country’s capacity to care for a higher number of older people with fewer workers may be challenged as a result of the population’s steady aging, which might eventually hinder economic development. China gave birth to over 9 million children last year, with half of those born in 2016.

Following the one-child policy, new issues
Due to the one-child policy, which was put into place amid China’s rapid urbanization from 1980 to 2015, the country has been seeing a reduction in births. China is now dealing with the opposite issue—people relocating to cities are choosing not to have children owing to increased costs—after abandoning the controversial program in 2016.

Due to the high expense of raising children in the very competitive academic environment, an increasing number of Chinese are choosing to delay marriage, and even those who do so often only have one kid. By 2035, the number of people in the nation who are of retirement age is predicted to surpass 400 million, surpassing the whole population of the United States.

The burden is increased by the record-high percentage of young unemployment in 2023, a steep fall in white-collar worker earnings, and a fully developed real estate market that accounts for two thirds of family wealth. These elements are raising worries that as a result of fewer workers and customers, China’s economic prospects are deteriorating.

Many Chinese couples decide against having children due to the high expenditures of childcare and schooling, while women are discouraged from taking career pauses due to labor market uncertainties. Demographers claim that conventional assumptions that women take on the caregiving role in the family and gender discrimination make the problem worse.

In an effort to promote childbirth, local governments have launched a number of initiatives, such as lengthier maternity leaves, tax discounts, and housing assistance. However, a lack of financing and local governments’ lack of enthusiasm have prevented many of the initiatives from being put into practice.

worries about the prospects for growth
China’s 2023 death rate per 1,000 persons was 7.87, which was higher than 2022’s death rate of 7.37. The potential of China’s economy has come under scrutiny due to a confluence of elements that are considered to extend to other nations as well. The Chinese Academy of Sciences, a government agency, projects that the pension system would run out of money by 2035.

In April of last year, India overtook China as the most populated nation on Earth, igniting discussions about the benefits of shifting China-based supply chains to other markets in light of the growing geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Washington. According to UN analysts, China’s population would eventually fall by 109 million people by 2050, which is more than three times smaller than the previous estimate made in 2019.

But after the COVID-19 problem is resolved, China may see a boost in weddings in 2023, which would provide some respite the following year. In China, where most unmarried women do not have access to benefits related to childrearing, marriages are a leading indication of birth rates.

China’s economy expanded more quickly in the October–December quarter, which helped the Chinese government meet its 2023 growth goal of around 5% annually, despite still disparate trade statistics and economic recovery. The fact that China’s GDP shrank by 3.0% in 2022 as a result of COVID-19 and the countrywide lockdowns imposed during the epidemic probably contributed to the growth of 2023.