EDUCATOR | Israel declares it will take revenge on Iran. These are the dangers that Israel may face

After hundreds of drones and missiles were fired into Israel over the weekend as part of an Iranian strike, Israel is threatening to react against Iran and turn the two enemies’ ongoing shadow war into a real confrontation.

When and how an attack would occur has not been disclosed by Israeli authorities. But it’s obvious that a direct Israeli strike on Iranian land would have serious repercussions as nations all over the globe call on Israel to exercise caution and the possibility of a multi-front conflict grows.

Iran claims it launched the attack in retaliation for an Israeli bombing on April 1 that claimed the lives of two Iranian generals in Syria. It has promised to retaliate against any Israeli onslaught on its territory with even more vigor.

The U.S. has asked Israel to exercise prudence while it concentrates on its campaign against Hamas in Gaza and is already waging a daily battle with terrorists supported by Iran in Lebanon.

According to American sources, President Joe Biden informed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that his country would not take part in any aggressive action against Iran and that the dangers of escalation must be “very clear” to Netanyahu.

For the last two days, Israel’s war council has been discussing their next course of action. These are some factors that were crucial in their choice.

Growing estrangement from Israel

Israel had a short period of worldwide sympathy and support on Saturday night because to its effective air defense, which was carried out in concert with the United States, Britain, France, and Jordan. This came after months of growing international isolation due to the Gaza conflict. According to local health professionals, the six-month onslaught has killed about 34,000 Palestinians and caused a humanitarian crisis.

An alliance of foreign allies aided Israel in its successful self-defense. 98% of the weapons, according to Israel’s military, were intercepted; just few made it into Israeli airspace. Only a little amount of damage was done by the assault, and a 7-year-old girl was hurt.

Under the direction of U.S. Central Command, which is in charge of American troops in the area, this coalition operated. In order to present a united front against Iran, it collaborates closely with Israel and the moderate Arab nations.

Despite having disagreements with Israel over the Gaza War, Jordan, a nation with a mostly Palestinian population, joined the endeavor, claiming that it was acting in self-defense.

Furthermore, because Saudi Arabia is a major regional power and does not have formal diplomatic ties with Israel, it seems plausible that Saudi Arabia provided assistance. Many of the Iranian missiles are shown going over Saudi airspace on a map that Israel posted.

Although Israel has been careful to keep the identities of its Arab allies a secret, an Israeli air force officer who discussed the operation on the condition of anonymity said that Israeli airplanes had to fly “east of Israel” in order to intercept missiles.

Iran claims it launched the attack in retaliation for an Israeli bombing on April 1 that claimed the lives of two Iranian generals in Syria.
Global Express | India’s Repercussions from the Iran, Israel, and US Tango
Israel would be sacrificing this goodwill if it moves alone, according to Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a think tank located in Tel Aviv.

“If Israel does not launch a massive retaliatory attack, it can take advantage of this and buy itself a lot of credit right now,” the speaker said. “However, a lot of credit is lost if it attacks.”

Arab governments’ implied backing does not imply that they would back Israel’s counteroffensive against Iran. According to Daniel Byman, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, Israel would technically need to obtain permission from its Arab neighbors before conducting any air or missile response other than ballistic missiles, which would arc over rather than through neighboring countries’ airspace.

Regarding if Saudi Arabia and Jordan would provide Israel overflight clearance, “there’s kind of a route and access questions.”

Byman said, “That would be considered a hostile act from Iran’s point of view.” “And although these nations dislike Iran, they are not overly eager to be associated with Israel in such a manner.”

A fear of conflict on several fronts

Any counterattack must be carefully considered as a large-scale strike in retaliation on Iranian territory runs the danger of starting a regional conflict.

A frontal assault on Iranian territory would most likely provoke a fierce counteroffensive and run the danger of inciting Hezbollah to carry out further strikes. Despite having a considerably more potent weaponry than Hamas, the Lebanese militia supported by Iran has demonstrated hesitation to wage a full-scale battle.

Approximately 60,000 residents of northern Israel have already had to leave their homes as a result of continuing negotiations with Hezbollah. They would probably have to spend more time away from home if they fought more.

Israel’s military would be more stretched, its attention would be diverted from Gaza, and its already battered economy would suffer from a frontal battle.

The tenuous U.S. backing for the war might potentially be jeopardized by any significant strike on Iranian land.

Iran claims it launched the attack in retaliation for an Israeli bombing on April 1 that claimed the lives of two Iranian generals in Syria.
While international leaders call for moderation, Israel warns it will retaliate for Iran’s missile strike over the weekend.
According to two U.S. officials, Israel hasn’t yet informed the country of how it plans to react. Speaking under anonymity to discuss diplomatic talks, the sources said that Israel has indicated that whatever action it takes would be intended to keep the already precarious regional security situation from becoming worse. That may indicate a more constrained course of action, such hitting Iranian proxies located around the area or attacking Iran via cyberspace.

According to Tamar Hermann, an Israel Democracy Institute pollster, the majority of Israelis support military action as long as it is coordinated with US and other regional partners.

“Support will be much smaller if it is done without consultation and without an agreement with allies,” Hermann said.

armed force

The army of Israel is much stronger than any other in the area. It is equipped with a variety of advanced weapons, such as long-range missile-launching F35 fighter jets. According to experts, it is capable of hitting Iran directly or via its regional proxies.

The Iranian air force, according to weapons specialist and International Institute for Strategic Studies research fellow Fabian Hinz, is “not even remotely comparable.” According to him, the force is made up of a variety of aircraft from the 1980s and 1990s, some of which are from the time of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s authority, which lasted until 1979.

According to him, not much is known about the Islamic republic’s air defense system’s reach. Hindz said that a large number of Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities are buried deep down, making them challenging to destroy. In addition, Israel could need the Gulf Arab states’ consent to utilize their airspace, but this is not a given.

Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at Israel’s INSS, said, “I don’t think it’s going to be a full-scale Israeli attack against many targets all over Iran.” “It is likely to be restricted to one or two targets, possibly within Iran.”

Iran claims it launched the attack in retaliation for an Israeli bombing on April 1 that claimed the lives of two Iranian generals in Syria.
India expressed “serious concern” over the intensifying confrontations between Iran and Israel.