Election for the Lok Sabha in Karauli-Dholpur, Rajasthan: A Jatav vs Jatav battle

The Scheduled Caste (SC) parliamentary seat is assigned to the Karauli-Dholpur (SC) Lok Sabha constituency. It includes the whole of the districts of Karauli and Dholpur. Eight Legislative Assembly segments now make up the constituency: Todabhim (ST), Hindaun (SC), Karauli, and Sapotra (ST) in Karauli district, and Baseri (SC), Bari, Dholpur, and Rajakhera in Dholpur district.

2008 saw the establishment of the seat via the delimitation procedure. The boundaries of the constituency are shared between Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Since 2014, Manoj Rajoria of the BJP has served as the MP. Khiladi Lal Bairwa of the Congress came before him. The candidates running for the Lok Sabha in 2024 are Bhajan Lal Jatav of the Congress and Indu Devi Jatav of the BJP. On June 4, the poll results will be announced.

AFFECTORS IN VOTING
2023 Assembly Elections: The Congress won five of the eight seats up for grabs in the 2023 assembly election, including two in Karauli and all four in the Dholpur district. In the meantime, Dholpur has no BJP seats, whereas the Karauli district has two—Karauli and Sapotra. BSP is another player with a seat in the Dholpur district of Bari.

BJP vs. Congress: The race for this seat is expected to be fierce between the BJP and Congress. Although Karauli and Dholpur have historically supported the Congress, the Modi factor played a crucial role in the BJP’s 2014 capture of their parliamentary seat.

BJP cautious of anti-incumbency: The party has once again withdrawn Manoj Rajoria, the two-term incumbent MP, from this constituency. Rajoria faced strong anti-incumbency sentiment since it was believed that he had lost contact with his constituency and was not effectively representing their interests. The Dholpur-Sarmathura-Karauli-Gangapur City train project, which was intended to improve train connections between Dholpur and Karauli—a long-standing desire of the locals—was, in reality, one of the main elements working against him.

Factor Indu Jatav: The BJP has fielded a new candidate to challenge Rajoria because of a strong feeling of anti-incumbency against him and some internal party strife. Rajoria lacked the youthful appearance, untarnished reputation, and favorable grassroots leadership attributes that Indu Jatav has. She is anticipated to draw a substantial portion of the dominating Jatavs, who have 3.62 lakh votes in the seat; in contrast to Rajoria, who is from the Khatik group, she is a member of the Jatav community.

Outsider versus. insider: Bhajanlal Jatav is the face of the Congress party. The storyline of insiders against outsiders has gained prominence in the Jatav vs. Jatav contest before the elections. Despite his seniority in the Congress, Bhajanlal, a two-time MLA from Bharatpur’s Weir assembly seat and a former cabinet minister in the previous Ashok Gehlot-led Congress administration, is seen as a non-local politician. However, Indu has gained acclaim for her grassroots activities. She was the Karauli Panchayat Samiti’s Pradhan from 2015 to 2020. BJP officials in the area support her candidacy, pointing out that she has a strong relationship with the voters.

Caste Predominates: One important thing to watch out for in this seat is caste-based voting. As previously said, Jatavs have a big say in it; with 3.62 lakh votes, they might become the seat’s kingmakers. The BJP also relies heavily on the Rajput voter base. Other prominent castes include the Malis, the Gujjars, and the Meenas, who make up more than half of the 22.5% SC population. It is anticipated that the three castes would divide between the Congress and the BJP.

Khiladi Lal Bairwa Joins BJP: In March 2024, Khiladi Lal Bairwa, along with several other state-wide Congress officials, joined the BJP. Bairwa was a former Congress MP from Karauli-Dholpur (2009–2014) and MLA from Baseri (2018–2023). In addition to supporting the party in general, Bairwa is a well-known politician who is anticipated to increase the number of votes the BJP receives from the Bairwa caste.

Modi Factor: There is a noticeable Modi factor in this seat. The prime minister’s reputation has improved as a result of many social programs, like free rationing, Awas Yojana, Ayushman Bharat, and others. Furthermore, in this mostly Hindu seat, Hindutva, and particularly the building of the Ram Mandir, have had a major influence.

Additional Factors in the BJP’s Advantage: The saffron party is expected to gain a significant majority in the assembly seats held by the BJP in Karauli and Sapotra (ST). In Dholpur, the home base of BJP leader and former chief minister Vasundhara Raje, the BJP also seems to be in good shape.

Congress Using Anti-Incumbency Strategy: In spite of Ashok Gehlot’s anti-incumbency campaign, the Congress won five out of eight assembly districts in the 2023 elections. Strangely, the party is now counting on Manoj Rajoria’s anti-incumbency to help it pull off yet another shock against the BJP.

Bhajan Lal Jatav: As the Congress looks to challenge the BJP for Jatav votes, Bhajan Lal Jatav is a new face in the region. Jatav is relying on Congress’s advantage in assembly sessions and the track record of the preceding Congress administration for support. Although the anti-incumbency factor is working in his favor, the BJP’s decision to nominate a new candidate has made the race more difficult for him.

Elements in Bhajan Lal’s Advantage: In addition to running against the incumbent, the Congress is counting on a sizable portion of the Meena (ST) vote as well as the traditional Muslim core vote bank. In addition, the Mali caste would divide its members between the Congress and the BJP. Overall, by highlighting Ashok Gehlot’s achievements and criticizing Rajoria’s flaws, the party is putting up a strong battle against the BJP in this situation. There is also some resonance for national problems; in this SC-dominated seat, Scheduled Caste voters have responded favorably to accusations made by the Congress that the BJP wants to abolish the nation’s Constitution.

Challenges: The Congress faces a number of obstacles, including the departure of prominent party figures like Khiladi Lal Bairwa, the national Congress leadership’s lackluster appeal, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strong support in the seat.

Important Constitutional Issues: Persistent Need for a Broad-Gauge Line: A narrow-gauge train has been operating between Dholpur city and Sarmathura town in the Dholpur district for the last 114 years. About 44 kilometers separate Karauli from Sarmathura. There isn’t yet a practical train link between Karauli and Dholpur. The Dholpur-Sarmathura-Karauli-Gangapur City Rail Project was approved more than ten years ago in order to remedy this problem. The project was to be funded in part by the state and the Center, and former chief minister Ashok Gehlot lay the project’s foundation stone in 2013.

Manoj Rajoria, a BJP MP, is against the idea and would rather that the 114-year-old narrow-gauge rail line be recognized as a national historic site. This problem has been the residents’ greatest electoral annoyance over time. Rajoria has eventually collapsed because of the delayed development. Even though Rajoria claimed in February that the government had finally begun construction on the project in response to his requests, the negative perception of him has not diminished. Potential benefits of the wide-gauge project include lowering transportation costs for necessary supplies and equipment, which are important for local businesses like stone and sand mining.

Railway station conditions are poor: A number of stations on the Dholpur-Sarmathura line are in a terrible shape, made worse by encroachments that obstruct access roads. One such example is Angai Station. The railways have identified it as “abandoned,” yet trains stop there and anyone may board for free. However, since locals have illegally occupied railway property, making it unusable by cars, getting to the station involves a 2-kilometer walk.

The constituency’s lack of road and rail connections forces it to rely on the more than 100-kilometer-distance airports in Agra, Gwalior, and Jaipur. The public wants improved connections with the rest of Rajasthan and the neighboring states of UP and MP, as well as additional passenger and freight trains, smooth transit between Karauli and Dholpur, and more.

Low Turnout: According to reports, Rajasthan’s Karauli-Dholpur seat had the lowest turnout for the Lok Sabha elections. The turnout for the seat in 2019 was 55.18 percent, which is less than the 67.4 percent national average.

Farmers’ issues: Farmers in the Karauli-Dholpur constituency face a wide range of difficulties, such as a lack of water, inadequate irrigation facilities, low crop yields, declining incomes, dissatisfaction with minimum support prices (MSPs), inadequate crop insurance coverage, fragmented land, and fluctuating market prices. Meanwhile, farmers’ protests in the north have had little impact on the public discourse here. The region’s farmers’ livelihoods and economic stability are jointly threatened by these problems.

Water concerns: Each year, this seat has water-related concerns. In addition to the challenge of finding enough water for farming, borewell water poses a health risk to human health due to its high fluoride level.

Crime: In recent years, Karauli has had a number of rape cases surface. A member of the public health engineering (PHE) department in Todabhim town was accused of sexually abusing a young girl last year, according to reports. There had been another horrifying occurrence in the neighborhood involving the gangrape and killing of a Dalit girl. with order to hide their identity, the attackers reportedly shot the woman and doused her with acid after the vicious attack. This received a lot of media attention. Furthermore, while they are declining, kidnappings and killings remain a major problem in this region. “The state of lawlessness and disorder in Rajasthan is the hallmark of Congress-led government,” Prime Minister Modi said at a gathering in Karauli last year.

Another problem in this mostly rural area is unemployment. This mountainous, wooded area has a great potential for tourism, which, if realized, would provide jobs for a large number of people. Furthermore, without improved connection, the two major areas’ economic potential remains unrealized.

VOTER DEMOGRAPHICS: ● 1800467 voters in total as of 2019

Voters in rural areas: 82.8%

17.2% of voters are urban.

● Rate of literacy: 55.94%

SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHICS: 22.5% of SC voters

● Voters in ST: 14.6%

RELIGIOUS DEMOGRAPHICS: 92% of Hindus

● Muslim: 6.9%

● Jain: 0.3%

● Christian: 0.05 percent

● Sikh: 0.7 percent

STRUCTURE
Tiger conservation: Permission to establish the Dholpur-Karauli Tiger Reserve in Rajasthan has been given by the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA). After joining the ranks of Mukundra Hills, Ramgarh Vishdhari, Ranthambore, and Sariska, this reserve will rank as the fifth in the state and the 54th in the nation. Because it will increase eco-tourism in the region, this will result in additional job prospects for the locals.

Highway connection: The people’s access to much-needed development has been made possible by the notable improvement in highway connection. The Delhi-Mumbai Expressway, whose construction would cost Rs 1,00,000 crore and whose foundation was laid in 2019, has linked the area. PM Modi dedicated the first phase of the expressway’s Delhi-Dausa-Lalsot segment in 2023. The 93-kilometer-long, Rs 150 crore, two-lane Lalsot-Karauli project is on NH-23. It will make traveling between Karauli and Kothun easier.

Health: In February of this year, Prime Minister Modi officially opened a new medical and nursing college in Karauli. Under the direction of RSRDC, work on the medical college building along the Karauli-Mandrayal road began in July 2022. A total of Rs 325 crore was set aside for the project. The amount allotted for civil projects is around Rs 150 crore; the remaining money would go toward other resources. 75 acres of land have been given to the medical college for its campus. The Government Medical College’s principal, Dr. Sarwan Kumar Meena, said that all 100 of the seats were filled in the first year of the college’s existence. A nursing college with 60 seats allocated annually is also part of the medical institution.

Project: ERCP Water: The state BJP administration has signed a tripartite Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with New Delhi and Madhya Pradesh to begin construction on the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project. The massive ERCP project, which will cost more than Rs 40,000 crore, would improve irrigation capabilities across an area of around 2 lakh hectares in 13 districts in Rajasthan, including Dholpur and Karauli. This project is essential for providing irrigation and drinking water, meeting a long-standing need. In November 2017, the BJP government, led by the then-chief minister Vasundhara Raje, conceived of the project.