Will Iran’s threat of vengeance against Israel for the April 1 assault on its embassy in Damascus, which resulted in the deaths of Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and other officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), intensify regional tension in West Asia? With US President Joe Biden offering “ironclad” backing for Israel, there is a genuine possibility that Iranian-backed proxies could step up their assaults on US troops and Israel. However, former Indian ambassador to Iran Manbir Singh said that Iranian response against Israel may be “measured.”
“The counterreactions from the two nations and the harm to global oil supply will limit the Iranian response against Israel and the US. “Israel and the US will launch a massive response, unless it’s a very moderate attack of the face-saving variety,” said Singh. He went on to say that with the Israel-Palestine conflict already lasting more than six months, no nation wants or can afford any further escalation of hostilities in the Middle East.
If Iran launched a big onslaught, accusing the Sunni Arab monarchy of being pro-US, it might even target its oil reserves. The former ambassador said, “Tehran has always accused the Arab nations—apart from Qatar—of being pro-American and not supporting Islamic issues.
Iran would not “initiate a massive offensive against Israel and the US,” according to Talmiz Ahmad, a former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Despite being under sanctions for more than 40 years and been provoked several times, it has never shown any interest in a conventional conflict. Ahmad said, “Tehran is not prepared to wage a full-scale war. While Israel has refrained from attacking Teheran directly, Iran has mostly attacked via proxies. With the strike in Syria, Tel Aviv is likewise preparing for a counterattack by its fiercest adversary, raising the possibility of a regional war.
The US and its European allies fear that Iran may start an open conflict with Israel as a result of the strike in Damascus. Travel warnings have been issued by Russia, France, and India for its people visiting the area due to fears about a possible escalation in the already dangerous region as a result of this incident.
Amid growing tensions in the Middle East, the IRGC captured a cargo ship on Saturday close to the Strait of Hormuz. There are seventeen Indians in the crew.