For India, northern comfort is illusive

The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA, grouping of the opposition has cause for optimism over its chances in the southern states in the Lok Sabha elections. The situation in the north provides a picture of turmoil and despair for the coalition, in contrast to the hopeful situation on the other side of the Vindhyas, where India is well situated in Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Kerala, and somewhat so in Karnataka.

The chaotic situation is mostly caused by the weaknesses present in every opposition party facing a nearly hegemonic ruling force (the Congress until 1989, the BJP since then). These weaknesses are mostly the result of ego conflicts and the demonstrable unwillingness of the so-called “stronger” parties to share power fairly with their allies, as well as the BJP’s smash-and-grab strategy to destroy a level playing field.

Due to the BJP’s aggressive strategies, a significant portion of the critical mass India needed to mount a credible fight has been lost. With the most losses, the Congress has been the sole pan-Indian party in the opposition. A number of well-known figures have defected, adding to the perception that the Congress has become weaker inside and cannot effectively challenge the BJP and the NDA.

Although Jammu and Kashmir only provides five seats to the Lower House of Parliament (the Kashmir valley has three MPs and Jammu has two), the BJP and INDIA nevertheless find great symbolic value in the region. A recent event serves as a typical example of how India’s opposition, which is led by the Abdullahs’ National Conference (NC) and Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP), cannot be united. Despite their prior claims of cooperation, the NC and PDP have filed their own candidates and chosen to compete against one another in the Valley.

The Congress was unable to solidify the alliance. Either the Congress did not have the moral or political standing to mediate a settlement between Mehbooba Mufti and the Abdullahs, or the party decided it would be more “prudent” to support the former. It is vital to keep in mind, meanwhile, that a fractured opposition can provide the BJP with a much-needed opening in the valley. Furthermore, the PDP and the NC have already sided with the BJP after supposedly becoming apathetic to its philosophy.

Let’s move on to Uttar Pradesh with its abundant 80 seats, the majority of which the BJP won in 2014 and 2019. After many setbacks, there is a rumor circulating in the Lucknow market that there is no jaan (life) left in India.

The Samajwadi Party (SP) is by far the center of the coalition, although there have been hiccups in the run-up to the polls. The Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party were lost to the BJP, which skillfully arranged a seat-sharing arrangement to the apparent satisfaction of the NDA’s supporters. The SP has struggled in selecting candidates (it wasn’t as though it was spoiled for choice); it now has the Congress as an ally. When it came to opposing the BJP’s overtly divisive agenda, PM Narendra Modi’s address in Ghaziabad last week showed that Akhilesh Yadav, the head of the Samajwadi Party, was clearly on the defensive.

Muslims have always been a significant portion of the SP’s voter base, and the partnership with the Congress is expected to result in the consolidation of minority support. Muslim opinion leaders, priests, and minority members of the SP were not fond of Yadav’s reluctance to take a public stance on minority-related matters. Members of his party sometimes voiced opposition to it.

The recent passing of Mukhtar Ansari, a politician and convicted felon with a sizable following in eastern Uttar Pradesh due to his Robin Hood persona, attracted enormous crowds to his burial, numbers that were unaffected by the heavy presence of law enforcement. Yadav called his family after the incident, particularly because Mukhtar’s brother Afzal had been nominated by the SP for the Ghazipur Lok Sabha seat in Purvanchal. The seat was won by Afzal Ansari in both 2004 and 2019.

However, the BJP is desperate to make up for the nine seats the NDA lost (from 71 in 2014 to 62 in 2019) and maybe gain more, so it has spared no effort in its flagship state. With a roadshow in Ghaziabad and Meerut, Modi has already made a strong impression. The BJP has already established partnerships and announced more than 50 candidates. The Congress is hopeful that the Gandhis would run from their family boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli in Awadh, despite their poor organisational structure and lack of prominent regional leaders. In the event that the family retreats, the rank and file of the UP is concerned that the Congress may draw a blank, particularly in light of Rahul Gandhi’s loss in Amethi in 2019.

Does India look to the North for salvation? It seems that the BJP in Haryana voluntarily lost the Jat votes it brought to the table as well as its partner, the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP). However, the Congress does not seem to be the winner that is often assumed. The split just means that the JJP will divide the votes of a powerful group, denying the Congress the advantage it may have had under Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s leadership.

Delhi, what about it? After his arrest, Arvind Kejriwal has become India’s undisputed hero. Despite the fact that the chief minister and many other prominent officials are behind bars, the AAP has remained proactive. Its campaign centers on Kejriwal and the major initiatives of his administration, but is it sufficient to defeat the all-powerful head of the BJP and a well-defined campaign full of inflated claims about the Center’s “achievements” and diligent work on the ground?

The prominence of Tejashwi Yadav, Hemant Soren, who is also behind bars, and Kejriwal demonstrates how the Congress is arbitrarily made to take second place to the regional satraps of north India. However, the real test of its capacity to reclaim political leadership will come from direct confrontations with the BJP in states like MP, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, and Chhattisgarh.