India’s growing presence in West Asia

India’s foreign policy in recent years has been rather paradoxical: New Delhi has claimed to be acting and looking East, but in reality, it has been behaving West. The PM and the Modi administration have devoted a great deal of time and energy on wooing West Asian countries. As a result, the energy and expat connection is increasingly taking on political, economic, and defense aspects.

India’s involvement in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and the I2U2 alliance are examples of this. Seen as a kind of Western Quad, the former connects the US, Israel, India, and the United Arab Emirates. The latter is a multimodal project that passes via Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia in an ambitious attempt to connect India with Europe.

Prime Minister Modi visited the United Arab Emirates for the seventh time since taking office earlier this month. Along with signing a bilateral investment treaty, he dedicated Abu Dhabi’s first Hindu temple (BIT). After that, he traveled to Qatar, where he succeeded in gaining the royal pardon of eight Indians who had been detained there on charges of espionage, and in doing so, he was able to prolong a $78 billion natural gas import agreement until 2048.

China, a big player in the area, is keeping a close eye on things. China has moved away from Israel and is attempting to portray itself as a neutral party that may mediate a solution, all the while India is attempting to triangulate its position between the Gulf nations, Palestine, and Israel. India has been making an attempt to challenge China, whose investments and areas of interest span the whole region, from Saudi Arabia and Oman to Egypt and Iran.

The United Arab Emirates has been India’s second-biggest export destination in recent years. The two parties agreed to a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in 2022. India and the UAE’s commerce increased by 16% in a year to reach $85 billion. India’s only other signatory to a BIT and an FTA is the United Arab Emirates.

This program includes a significant initiative to support Indian exports, such as the establishment of retail, storage, and logistics facilities in the Jebel Ali Free Trade Zone in the United Arab Emirates. The Indian government and DP World, a business that specializes in port management, logistics, and marine services, have partnered to create Bharat Mart.

India is taking a more active role in regional security due to the common interest in geopolitical stability. It performed its first trilateral exercise with France and the United Arab Emirates last year. The Indian Navy has recently been unusually active in the seas in the northwest Arabian Sea, providing defense to commercial ships that are under attack from the Houthis. Furthermore, India has just attained full membership status in the US-led Combined Task Force, which has its main office in Bahrain.

India has no shortage of possibilities in the area. Leaders such as Saudi Arabia’s Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) have unlocked the floodgates, investing or proposing to invest in everything from elite soccer and international golf to constructing a futuristic new metropolis and a worldwide airline. While the Saudis have promised $100 billion, the biggest sovereign wealth fund in the UAE has committed to around $75 billion for Indian infrastructure. The two prosperous Arabian monarchies saw the expansion of the Indian economy as a way to further their own post-oil economic strategies.

According to MBS’s Vision 2030, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), a Saudi wealth fund, would oversee $2 trillion in assets by 2022, up from its current $718 billion. The ambitious ambition of the Saudis is to modernize their economy. China’s economic woes are forcing its businesses to make historic offers to the Saudis, who have strict guidelines for technology transfer and development.

Iran is one significant country excluded from these changes. The US sanctions on the nation are mostly to blame for this. Whether you like it or not, India considers Iran while making decisions on Pakistan and Central Asia. It is also the nearest hydrocarbon source to India. Even if the Saudis are reconsidering their previous actions against Israel, the Chinese have been effective in mediating the détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Despite diversifying its investments around the region, China has not fulfilled its commitments in Iran. Pakistan has benefited greatly from Chinese investment, which totaled $16 billion between 2013 and 2016. This amount is much more than that of the United Arab Emirates ($8 billion), Saudi Arabia ($8 billion), Turkiye ($5.8 billion), and Iraq ($4.3 billion). Iran has only received $0.35 billion.

India lacks China’s other levers, such as the export of weapons and technology, as well as the capacity to invest in the area. However, it also has other choices because to its sizable diaspora and alliances with the US, Israel, and France.

Right now, the Israel-Hamas conflict casts a shadow over the region’s geopolitical destiny. Plans to normalize relations between the area and Israel, for example, have been put on hold. The Saudis are waiting and observing, even though the UAE has not wavered from its strategy of normalizing relations with Israel. Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have all joined the enlarged BRICS.

India has benefited economically and strategically from the emergence of major strategic prospects brought about by its initiatives in West Asia. However, New Delhi would have to tread cautiously between China’s regional aspirations and the turmoil caused by the Israel-Palestine dispute.