Karnataka Legislative Assembly elections 2024: Rahul will compete in the slog overs; Modi and Shah to maintain momentum

The senior leadership of the BJP is putting forth maximum effort in an attempt to hold onto a significant number of seats that the party had won in the last Lok Sabha elections. In sharp contrast, the Grand Old Party, which is having trouble in the Hindi heartland, is floundering in Karnataka, the state where Rahul Gandhi, the star campaigner for the Congress, has yet to join the election fray.

On Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will return to Karnataka. During his third trip to the state since the polls were declared on March 16, the PM will speak at a rally in Mysuru and participate in a roadshow in Mangaluru.

The PM made a calculated decision by beginning his campaigning in the state from Kalaburgi, the home area of AICC chairman Mallikarjun Kharge. To resolve disagreements amongst the coalition parties, Union Home Minister Amit Shah also convened a number of meetings, including a BJP-JDS coordination conference in Bengaluru. In addition, he participated in a roadshow in the Bengaluru Rural constituency to promote the BJP-JDS campaign in the home district of state Congress president DK Shivakumar.

Radha Mohan Das Agrawal, the national general secretary of the BJP and the person in charge of the Karnataka polls, has been camped out in Bengaluru for about two months, suggesting that the party’s central leadership is also keeping a close eye on the proceedings in all 28 LS seats.

In order to maintain the party’s winning run, the Congress seems to be primarily banking on the state leaders, particularly the tried-and-true pairing of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar. With the exception of Kharge’s sporadic trips to Karnataka, mostly to Bengaluru and Kalaburagi, the central leadership seems to be little active in the state’s political campaign.

Rahul Gandhi is noticeably missing from the state’s political landscape this time around in contrast to his intense campaigning in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2023 assembly elections. Just nine days before the high-profile seats in the Old Mysuru area, where the Congress is up against a formidable challenge from the BJP-JDS combination, will go to elections on April 26, his maiden rally in the state is probably scheduled for April 17 in Kolar and Mandya.

Many are curious as to whether Rahul Gandhi’s slow entrance into the Karnataka election fray is a calculated maneuver meant to allow the local satraps to shape the discourse on regional concerns. Is he too preoccupied with his campaign in North India, where the party is not as powerful? However, the Congress side scarcely seems to be making an attempt to make up ground that they have lost in UP or other North Indian states. On the other hand, the BJP is working tirelessly to get traction in Tamil Nadu, a state that has eluded them so far.

In order to make its case to voters in Karnataka, Congress seems to be developing a more nuanced approach that would primarily center on its five promises and State-Centre concerns such as perceived injustices in tax devolution, drought relief, price increases, and unemployment. It has refrained from embracing the BJP’s narrative of transforming the elections into a race for leadership, asking questions like Modi vs. Who? Neither Congress nor I.N.D.I. can prevail in such scenario.A bloc without a face of the prime leader.

Although the party seems to be developing a well-thought-out plan in Karnataka, Rahul Gandhi’s unrelenting criticism may divert attention from the state’s problems. It may even, to a very little degree, risk portraying the election as a Modi vs. Rahul match. Also, since the BJP may exploit the topic of tax devolution against the Congress in states in northern India, none of the central leaders of the Congress are allowed to discuss it in an aggressive manner.

Though there is plenty of time for the campaign—the state’s first round of voting is scheduled on April 26 and the second on May 7—state Congress Communications Wing chairman Ramesh Babu maintains that Rahul Gandhi is not tardy in visiting Karnataka. Ramesh Babu claims that in addition to Rahul Gandhi, other candidates running in Karnataka include Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra, Mallikarjun Kharge, leaders of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin, Akhilesh Yadav, and others.

In any event, the Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar combination is once again responsible for the difficult job of winning Karnataka. The task at hand is to significantly enhance the party’s performance by achieving double digits, rather than just doing admirably compared to its appalling record of securing only one seat out of 28 in Karnataka during the most recent Lok Sabha elections. It seems that Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar have also been mired in their own regions, at least until the conclusion of the Karnataka election’s first round on April 26.

Much would rely in the coming days on the state Congress leaders’ capacity to maintain concentration on the problems pertaining to Karnataka and the assurances made by the State Government. Given the inclination of Congress core leaders to go off topic and engage in counterproductive Modi-bashing, it is not a simple assignment.