The young jobless in India are not benefiting from Narendra Modi’s rising economy. What makes his party the favorite to win an election again, then?

The largest election in Indian history is scheduled to take place in the country very shortly, from April 19 to early June. To choose the 543 members of the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament, about 950 million citizens who are registered to vote will have the opportunity to cast votes.

Although the outcome is not certain, most observers predict that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Narendra Modi, will get a further five years in power. Opinion surveys indicate that even after ten years in office, Modi is still well liked by the majority of Indians, and support for the main opposition parties is not universal.

Low growth and insufficient employment

This circumstance may seem strange to some. With its uneven performance, particularly in terms of economic management, the Modi administration has let many people down.

Indeed, as the prime minister often tells the people, India’s growth has been quicker in recent times than that of many of its rivals. However, the BJP never fulfilled its promise to reach double-digit growth rates when it took government 10 years ago.

Even worse, it has had difficulty creating employment for the millions of youth who need them.

Opponents point to BJP economic policy flaws that they believe have impeded development and employment creation. Among them are:

the shock that occurred in 2016 when abruptly 85% of India’s paper money was taken out, purportedly in an effort to fight corruption

The mishandled implementation of critical changes in the agriculture sector

and the continuous defense against both home and global competition of India’s major industrial giants.

When combined, opponents claim that these errors have prevented industrial investment that might have created jobs for more people and placed an excessive number of individuals in insecure employment.

bolstering the basis of Hindu nationalism

So why do so many Indians continue to support the Modi administration?

The BJP’s capacity to use focused messaging to appeal to a variety of constituencies is part of the solution.

Building and sustaining coalitions—either voter or party coalitions—is essential to successfully governing India. The BJP of Modi does both. Many minor parties in parliament support it, but what matters more for winning elections is the patchwork of many voter groupings it can mobilize.

In the middle of this patchwork is a group of ardent Hindu nationalists who are driven by the “Hindutva” philosophy. The argument put out is that the Hindu majority, comprising around 80% of the population, has a right to have their beliefs reflected in India’s culture and governance.

They have been fighting for decades to remove what they see as unjustified special rights granted to religious minorities, such as those pertaining to places of worship, rules governing divorce and child custody based on religious beliefs, and the autonomy of the Muslim-majority state of Jammu and Kashmir.

The Modi administration has gradually fulfilled many of these promises over the last ten years, solidifying the BJP’s support among Hindu nationalists.

It undid the constitutional changes that restricted New Delhi’s authority to decide how to run Kashmir in 2019.

The prime minister also oversaw the 1992 demolition of a mosque by Hindu nationalist demonstrators and the building of a new Hindu temple in Ayodhya earlier this year.

Shortly after, the government said that a contentious new legislation will take effect, allowing Sikhs, Hindus, and others who were escaping neighboring Muslim-majority nations to become citizens of India. However, the rule may also allow for the expulsion of Muslims who are thought to be illegal immigrants.

And a lot of people think that the next step will be a “uniform civil code” that would force all Indian residents, regardless of faith, to follow standard marriage, alimony, and custody agreements.

Targeting women and middle-class, urban voters

Though strong, the Hindu nationalist base is insufficient to provide the BJP with all the seats it needs to win power.

The party has so made an effort to appeal to the expanding urban middle class. This group is more focused on good administration and India’s place in the world than they are on cultural concerns.

The BJP gained their support in the last two elections on the platform of fighting corruption, enhancing the business climate in the nation, developing better infrastructure, and reviving national pride. It promises to keep pursuing this policy in order to retain this group of voters, and given the lack of compelling alternatives, it probably will.

Meanwhile, the BJP will keep trying to win over women and the impoverished in rural areas, who may choose to vote for left-wing parties or not at all.

The Modi administration has increased financing for a rural income guarantee plan and introduced other initiatives, including as midday meal programs for schools, in an effort to win over these communities.

Tens of millions of people, including women, have found it easier to obtain bank accounts thanks to it. This gives women the ability to get assistance benefits in spite of dishonest bureaucrats and heedless spouses, at least in theory.

In addition, the government claims that providing cooking gas bottles and toilets to millions of rural houses makes women safer.

So far, these tactics have paid off: in previous elections, the BJP has received more votes from women and the rural poor.

The party’s goal this time around is to increase support, especially among women. Among other things, it has pushed a new gender quota law through parliament, which mandates that one-third of Lok Sabha seats be set aside for women starting in 2029.

A weak and fragmented opposition

Although the BJP has never received more than 40% of the public vote in a national election, the Modi government’s achievement in winning over these groups is noteworthy. It may find it difficult to take power if there was a cohesive and strong opposition.

The opposition parties in India are weak and fragmented, which is good news for the BJP. They could win more seats if they could band together and back one strong candidate to take against the BJP in local districts. Negotiations to do this, meanwhile, have been difficult.

Even worse, the shaky opposition coalition still hasn’t announced a reliable replacement for prime minister.

Though he is seen by many as an incompetent dilettante, Rahul Gandhi, the head of the Congress Party and the heir of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty that governed India after independence, is an obvious pick. Promising state legislators such as Mamata Banerjee of West Bengal are confined to their own states.

In the meanwhile, Modi is quite well-liked. Young people and aspirants are still drawn to his humble upbringing and magnetism, particularly those from caste groups that have traditionally been marginalized from riches and power.

Such a powerful person will be difficult, if not impossible, to defeat.

Ian Hall is a Griffith University international relations professor.

Under a Creative Commons license, this article has been reprinted from The Conversation. Go through the original article.