S&P projects strong GDP growth in India in 2024–2026, reaching 6-7.1%

According to S&P Global Ratings, India’s GDP would expand steadily between 6.1% and 7.1% yearly in the fiscal years 2024–2026. This suggests that the country’s economic growth is headed in the right direction. The projection, as presented in S&P’s report ‘Global Banks Country-By-Country Outlook 2024,’ emphasizes the country’s strong growth potential in the medium run.

The paper highlights the favorable prospects for the banking industry in India, projecting a reduction in substandard loans to 3-3.5% of total advances by March 31, 2025. This anticipated increase is the result of fundamental improvements made to the banking system, including as stronger corporate balance sheets, more stringent underwriting guidelines, and improved risk-management procedures.

According to S&P, there won’t be any significant hikes in interest rates, which will reduce risks for the banking sector. The research indicates that cautious underwriting requirements for retail loans have been maintained, preserving acceptable levels of delinquencies within this category, despite the significant expansion of unsecured personal loans.

The analysis suggests that while there are uncertainties in the world economy, their effect on the Indian economy is expected to be minimal. Slower global growth and foreign demand are two examples of factors that might have an influence on economic activity and cause inflation. However, the agency anticipates that India’s economic development would be robust against these foreign constraints because of the country’s primarily domestic emphasis.

Furthermore, the June quarter saw a noteworthy growth in India’s real GDP of 7.8% year over year, up from 6.1% in the previous March quarter. These optimistic growth estimates are consistent with the Reserve Bank of India’s expectation of 6.5% GDP growth for the fiscal years 2023–24 and 2024–25.

Public-sector banks continue to struggle with comparatively greater quantities of poor assets, even though the State Bank of India and top private-sector banks have made significant progress in resolving their asset-quality issues. The analysis suggests that this discrepancy might lead to a rise in credit losses and have an effect on profitability, since it lags behind the industry’s overall performance.