Described: How US Allies Are Gearing Up for Potential Trump Re-Term

Washington: Within the Republican Party, Germany is conducting a charm drive. Japan is preparing its own Trump advisor. The Mexican administration and Camp Trump are in communication. Meanwhile, Australia is hard at work enacting legislation to strengthen its military relations with the US in the face of Trump.
Around the country, friends of the United States are moving to protect or further their own interests in the unlikely event that former President Donald Trump wins a second term in November—a possibility that has been suggested by recent surveys conducted in swing states.

They want to avoid the icy blow that Trump’s “America First” policies, which included trade conflicts, a reorganization of security alliances, a crackdown on immigration, and the departure from the international climate pact, struck them the previous time around.

Regarding preparations for Trump 2.0, Reuters talked with diplomats and government representatives across five continents. It revealed discussions in Mexico about a new, Trump-savvy foreign minister, the hasty push to save a submarine contract by an Australian ambassador, and conversations between a German official and Republican state governors.

Even if it might annoy Democratic President Joe Biden, Trump’s opponent in the election, several foreign leaders have reached out to him personally. A person with knowledge of the discussion claimed that the crown prince of Saudi Arabia just called President Trump, while the presidents of Poland and Hungary recently had face-to-face meetings with him.

This month, at his Florida estate, British Foreign Minister David Cameron also had discussions with Trump. Following their private meal, he informed reporters in Washington that they had spoken about the future of NATO, the Israel-Gaza conflict, and Ukraine.

The White House sent remarks made by spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre, according to which discussions like the one Cameron conducted were not unusual. Regarding Trump’s meeting with Orban and the Saudi call—which the New York Times first revealed—she refused to respond to inquiries.

Requests for comment about the call were not answered by the Trump campaign or the media office of the Saudi government.

According to the campaign, he spoke with all of the European leaders on security-related matters, including Polish President Andrzej Duda’s suggestion that NATO countries should spend at least 3% of their GDP for defense. At the moment, they want to spend 2%.

Interactions between candidates and ambassadors are common, according to Jeremi Suri, a presidential historian at the University of Texas. However, he believes that Trump’s encounters with Orban and Mohammed Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia were out of the ordinary.

Brian Hughes, a Trump advisor, stated: “International leaders’ calls and meetings acknowledge what we already know at home. The world will be more safe and America will be more rich once President Trump takes office as the 47th President of the United States. Joe Biden is weak.”

Concerning the other conclusions in this piece, the campaign did not provide a detailed response; nevertheless, spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said that “America’s allies are anxiously hoping that President Trump will be re-elected.”

THE GERMANY OF “BYPASS DIPLOMACY”
The majority of Trump’s outreach has been more indirect than the candidate’s encounters.

At the state level, Germany has been fostering relations with Trump’s Republican base by reminding party leaders of its significant investment in American business.

Germany is preparing for Trump 2.0 by hiring a transatlantic coordinator, keeping in mind that the president previously threatened to impose harsh tariffs on the country’s auto sector and that he now intends to impose a minimum 10% tax on all imports if he is elected again.

Michael Link is directing what Berlin refers to as “bypass diplomacy” as coordinator, circling the union and aiming for swing nations where Germany is a major investment.

“It would be extremely important, if Donald Trump were re-elected, to prevent the punitive tariffs he is planning on goods from the EU,” he said to Reuters.

He claimed to have met the Republican governors of Indiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Alabama. He outlines the rationale of Germany’s U.S. presence at each stop, based on strong commercial relations. BMW is the largest vehicle exporter from the United States, and according to Germany, it directly and indirectly employs 860,000 Americans.

Link has been meeting with Democratic politicians as well, but his main objective is to persuade those with the ability to influence Trump.

Reuters was unable to ascertain if Trump knew of Berlin’s attempt.

FRIENDLY FACES OF TRUMP
According to two sources based in Mexico, Mexican government representatives have been meeting with individuals close to President Trump on matters such as immigration and the smuggling of synthetic opioids like fentanyl into the United States. These are issues where Mexico may come under increased pressure from the United States in the event of another Trump administration.

It seems improbable that the Mexican government would approve of Trump’s threat to direct the Pentagon “to make appropriate use of special forces” against the infrastructure and leadership of the cartels.

According to the sources, the Mexican officials also spoke about the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was last revised in 2020 under the Trump administration and is up for revision in 2026. In recent statements, Trump hailed his rewriting of the arrangement.

Furthermore, as evidence of how important personal connections are to Trump, two people involved with the discussions said that Mexico’s governing party is evaluating other candidates to name as the country’s next foreign minister, contingent on whether Trump or Biden seems to have the best chance of winning.

In June, Mexico has its own presidential election. A month ahead of the U.S. election, in October, Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate of the governing party, will assume office if she wins, as presently predicted. According to the sources, she is expected to choose Marcelo Ebrard as her foreign minister if polls indicate that Trump would win.

During Trump’s presidency, Ebrard held the position of foreign minister for Mexico, and he was well-liked back home for handling relations with the administration.

According to the reports, Biden is more inclined to choose political veteran Juan Ramon de La Fuente if she wins.

According to Sheinbaum’s campaign, she wasn’t quite ready to reveal her choice. According to an Ebrard representative, he was concentrating on a Senate race and endorsing Sheinbaum’s presidential candidacy. A request for comment from De La Fuente was not answered.

THE TRUMP WHISPERER IN JAPAN
Japan is gearing up to send Harvard-educated translator Sunao Takao, who helped former prime minister Shinzo Abe get to know Trump over golf, to strengthen diplomatic ties with the Trump team.

According to a campaign spokesman, Taro Aso, another former Japanese prime minister, visited Trump on Tuesday in New York.

Government officials in Japan, America’s closest friend in Asia, express concern that Trump may reinstate trade protectionism and seek further funding for the maintenance of American soldiers there.

The Labour party in Britain, which is now in opposition but is a heavy favorite to win the elections that are anticipated by year’s end, may have a more difficult time building positive ties with a Trump government.

David Lammy, the prospective foreign minister for Labour, previously described Trump as a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi sociopath” in Time magazine. Labor officials say Lammy is now attempting to establish connections with Republicans.

According to the Labour source, Lammy has met with Republican leaders who are seen as potential contenders for positions in a Trump cabinet, such as Mike Pompeo, the former Secretary of State under Trump.

Although Lammy refused to be interviewed, he has said that he would protect British interests as foreign minister regardless of who is in the White House and that many British MPs have opposed Trump.

According to Victoria Coates, a former Trump senior national security advisor, “personal vitriol” on the side of Labour may portend a difficult period for U.S.-UK ties should Trump win.

Pompeo’s spokesperson refused to respond.

Fear underneath
Trump was reportedly incensed with Australia’s U.S. ambassador, Kevin Rudd, for having previously criticized the former president.

Trump said last month in a TV interview that he had heard former prime minister Rudd was “a little bit nasty” and that “if he’s at all hostile, he will not be there long.”

Defending Rudd, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said that if Trump were to regain power, he would continue in his role as ambassador.

Behind the scenes, Rudd is attempting to prevent Trump from unraveling a significant military agreement, according to a diplomatic source in Australia.

The Biden administration has committed to selling Canberra three to five Virginia-class attack submarines in order to assist Australia in taking the first step toward building a nuclear-powered submarine force.

According to the source, Rudd has pressed Canberra to move quickly to pass legislation that establishes a separate nuclear safety agency and brings Australia closer to U.S. weapons control rules in the hopes that it would make it more difficult for Trump to undo the transaction.

The embassy did not want to respond. Canberra did not answer a request for comment right away.

Strategic Analysis Australia’s Michael Shoebridge warned that Trump’s “America First” stance might yet blow the agreement.

“All the levers are there for Trump to say, ‘the U.S. Navy doesn’t have enough, so Australia don’t get any’,” the military analyst said.

Reuters was unable to ascertain Trump’s opinion on the subject. While running for office, he had no objections to the agreement.

The secret Approach of South Korea
Using lobbyists is a low-key approach for US friends to exert influence on Trump, particularly if they want to remain covert.

According to a former South Korean government official who is now working in Washington, Seoul desired to get insight into Trump’s thinking via lobbying companies in a “stealthy manner,” and the Biden administration was keeping a careful eye on foreign governments.

According to a South Korean government official, South Koreans are eager to learn about Trump’s opinions on trade and investment, particularly what would happen to Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and they’re humming about Washington’s lobbying district.

The foreign ministry of South Korea said that while it had not employed lobbyists for any one candidate, it was coordinating with its local embassies to be ready for the election and its aftermath.

IRA is in favor of both the energy transition and manufacturing reshoring. Trump supports reshoring as well, but he disagrees with Biden’s effort to move away from fossil fuels and toward green energy.

Certain lobbyists connected to Trump are being used by certain U.S. allies. One such lobbyist is Brian Ballard of Ballard Partners, a Florida firm that is sought after for his tight ties to Trump.

Japan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are among Ballard’s customers, according to disclosure reports from the business and the US government. It refused to mention any more.

Ballard partner Justin Sayfie said, “Many members of our firm have been longtime allies of the former president.”

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The foreign ministry of Japan said that it consulted with several specialists for guidance and assistance. Regarding the connection with Ballard, it chose not to comment. Congo did not answer a request for comment right away.