Russia is threatening us; will the EU provide enough money for defense?

Fearful European officials are calling for Europe to finally take its responsibility to finance its own defense seriously as Russian forces drive back outgunned Ukrainian soldiers and violence erupts across the Middle East.

This week at an industrial gathering in Brussels, EU head Ursula von der Leyen said, “It is time for the European awakening on defence and security.”

“There is so much at stake here — our freedom and our prosperity depend on our security, and we have to bring our actions in line with this changing security environment.”

Such lofty rhetoric is not new, even more than two years after full-scale warfare returned to the continent.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared a historic “turning point” a few days after Moscow’s incursion, while many months later, French President Emmanuel Macron called for a “war economy”.

After decades of underinvestment after the end of the Cold War, some significant initiatives have been done to close the gaps.

To reach the alliance’s two percent GDP objective, more European members of NATO, notably major powers France and Germany, have raised their defense budgets.

The European Union has started a number of programs to strengthen its defense industry and increase its ability to produce the artillery rounds that Ukraine sorely needs.

However, although Moscow has launched a war-like economic campaign, the EU is still finding it difficult to provide Ukraine’s requirements and bolster its own armed capabilities.

The CEO of Swedish defense company Saab, Michael Johansson, said during the Brussels conference, “I think that there has been a change in mindsets.”

“But there’s much more to do.”

Brussels proposed a 1.5 billion euro ($1.6 billion) plan last month to increase defense output, but officials claim this is far from enough.

In order to finance a much bigger scheme, several EU nations have presented the necessity for joint borrowing akin to the Covid recovery funds; estimates circulating place the requirement at far over 100 billion euros.

Thus far, the so-called thrifty countries headed by Germany have not supported this initiative.

More finance suggestions for the defense drive are expected from Brussels at the June meeting of EU leaders.

There is no time to waste, according to those leading the demands for Europe to intervene, as concerns grow that if the Kremlin wins in Ukraine, a larger conflict may break out throughout the continent.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said, “There are different estimates of how soon Russia will reconstitute and be in a position to attack again.”

“The number, three five or 10 years, does not really matter — everyone agrees that they will be ready and willing for the next war.”

Shell faces difficulties

A few of the issues confronting the EU are shown by the challenges of one of its major projects.

In response to Ukraine’s urgent request for artillery shells in the spring of 2023, EU representatives came to an agreement to provide Kyiv with one million rounds in less than a year.

In the first part, EU nations were given subsidies to search their stockpiles for any extra shells they may have.

In the second section, the defense agency of the bloc was instructed to negotiate framework contracts with EU manufacturers in order to enable member states to pool their purchasing power.

In September of last year, a number of those contracts were on the table, which was lightning fast for the Brussels bureaucracy.

The member nations were then responsible for contributing their funds.

However, it never fully materialized. A trickle of definitive orders followed, not a rush of agreements.

Now, more than eight months later, twelve EU nations have signed orders totaling barely 350 million euros, or little more than 70,000 shells. More than one billion euros’ worth of stocks are unexplored.

At a Brussels conference, Andre Denk, deputy chief executive of the European Defence Agency, said, “I feel we are talking too much, we really have to act now.”

“Is there any political will left? Where is the willingness and ability to contribute financially to a serious investment?”

Defense companies gripe that Europe’s sector is being held back by nations’ unwillingness to work together and commit to long-term contracts.

This week in Brussels, Estonia’s prime minister told reporters, “It is a bit of a chicken and egg issue.”

Kallas remarked, “It’s better if we work on this together.” “Making the political decision to put more money into defence is the first step to give the signal to the defence industry to do more.”

“But whatever we decide to do, we need to do it fast.”

Not only is Russia adding to the feeling of urgency in Europe, but Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House after the US elections in November as an isolationist is another factor.

According to senior EU foreign service official Benedikta von Seherr-Thoss, 78% of Europe’s defense equipment is now purchased from outside the EU.

“Of course, it will make a huge difference who the US president will be,” she said.

“But at the same time the question that we as Europeans have to ask ourselves is how dependent do we want to be for our security?”