Cong-AAP’s combined vote share in Gujarat’s assembly elections in 2022 could not be sufficient to beat the BJP in 2024

Despite having a lower combined vote share than the BJP in the Gujarat assembly elections of 2022, the Congress and AAP are optimistic of securing some of the state’s 26 Lok Sabha seats in coalition and impeding the saffron party’s attempt at a clean sweep.

Nonetheless, a senior BJP official asserts that no coalition can prevent his party from taking all 26 seats in Gujarat and that the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party are ill-prepared to deal with the actual situation.

However, the leaders of the Congress and AAP assert that the data from the assembly polls is no longer relevant and that, with new arrangements in place and voter emotions shifting, they would be able to draw in a larger number of people for their joint campaign against the BJP in the next Lok Sabha elections.

In addition, they believe that the BJP would encounter anti-incumbency given that it won all 26 seats in the state in the last two Lok Sabha elections.

Gujarat’s 26 Lok Sabha seats will be up for election in a single phase on May 7.

The BJP received 52.50% of the vote in the 2022 assembly elections, compared to 40.20% for the Congress and AAP combined.

Gujarat has 182 assembly seats in total; the BJP won 156 of these, the Congress won 17, and the AAP won 5.

“AAP is a partner in the opposition INDIA alliance, and in Gujarat we are playing the role of the big brother,” Congress spokesman Manish Doshi told PTI. The coalition would undoubtedly prevent the split of votes against the BJP and support the Congress, which is running for 24 seats, as well as the AAP, which is running for two seats.”

According to Doshi, the Arvind Kejriwal-led party has filed candidates in partnership with the grand old party in Bharuch and Bhavnagar Lok Sabha seats, and the Congress is supporting the AAP in every manner possible to enable them win these seats.

According to him, Congress state president Shaktisinh Gohil even attended a ceremony marking the launch of the AAP candidate’s election office in Bhavnagar.

Gohil’s native district is Bhavnagar.

The AAP ran candidates in all 182 seats for the first time in the 2022 assembly elections, taking against the BJP and the Congress.

The leaders of the AAP and Congress think that the two parties’ votes were split significantly, which is why the BJP won 156 seats in the Gujarat assembly elections—the most ever.

This time, the coalition will stop the vote splitting that occurred during the last assembly elections. The Gujarat AAP leader Sagar Rabari said that “the anti-incumbency sentiment among voters will not be divided,” with just one party’s candidate facing the BJP candidate in a particular seat.

According to him, those who were hesitant to vote against the BJP in the 2022 assembly elections now feel more confident because of the partnership between the AAP and the Congress.

“The vote share for 2022 is outdated and not very useful at this time.

“This time, the two parties challenging the BJP will alter the dynamics,” he said.

The Congress-AAP coalition, according to Gujarat BJP president CR Paatil, won’t significantly affect his party’s progress in its quest to reproduce the results of the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019.

He said that the BJP’s goal this time is to win every seat by a margin of more than 5 lakh votes.

“All 26 seats will be won by the BJP, and no coalition can stop it. “I think the Congress and AAP are still in the clouds and not prepared to face reality,” he remarked.

Of the five assembly seats that the AAP won in 2022, two are under the Bharuch and Bhavnagar Lok Sabha constituency. The party headed by AAP, led by Kejriwal, has put forward its current MLAs as candidates for these seats.

With a substantial tribal population, Bharuch was a Congress stronghold until 1989, when senior party leader Ahmed Patel lost to become the party’s leader for a fourth term.

The BJP has held the seat ever since.

The Bharuch-based BJP candidate, Mansukh Vasava, is running for a sixth term.

He will face AAP member Chaitar Vasava, who defeated BJP candidate Hitesh Vasava by a significant margin to win the Dediapada assembly seat in the Narmada district under the Bharuch Lok Sabha constituency.

The BJP has six of the seven assembly seats that make up the Bharuch Lok Sabha constituency.

The combined vote share of 4.74 lakh for the Congress and AAP in the most recent assembly elections on these seven seats was much lower than the 6.16 lakh votes received by the BJP.

Similarly, the BJP has six of the seven assembly seats in Bhavnagar, where it received a total of 6.14 lakh votes.

Together, the AAP and Congress received 4.91 lakh votes.

128 AAP candidates and 41 nominees for Congress lost their deposits for the 2022 assembly elections.

The BJP received 51% of the vote in the Bharuch seat, which is 12% greater than the combined vote shares of the Congress (26%), AAP (13%) and other parties, according to Paatil, after the two parties’ formal agreement.

“AAP candidates lost deposits in four of the seven segments that make up the Bharuch seat in the most recent assembly elections. Another BJP stronghold that the party has been gaining for years is Bhavnagar, according to Paatil.