Explainer: Amethi and Raebareli—the mystery and conjecture persist

The anticipation surrounding the Congress nominees for the two esteemed Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh—Amethi and Raebareli—remains, as does the development of several scenarios and contenders.

There are rumors that Congress president Malikaarjun Kharge and Priyanka Vadra’s husband Robert Vadra could run from the Gandhi family boroughs. Some people believe that the two “original members” of the Gandhi family—Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka Vadra—will lay claim to the family boroughs in order to “send a positive message” to party leaders and cadres as well as voters.

To inspire cadres and voters alike, state authorities undoubtedly want Rahul and Priyanka to run from Amethi and Raebareli, respectively.

Would they not, would they?

In the meantime, leaders assert that there is “plenty of time” to decide which two constituencies would cast ballots in the country’s approaching fifth round of the Lok Sabha elections on May 20.

They further state that the next meeting of Congress’ national election committee is anticipated to consider potential candidates for the two seats.

Starting on April 26, nominations will be accepted for the two seats. May 3 is the deadline for submitting nominations.

Congress has already selected candidates for seats where campaigning would take time. Regarding Raebarelli, Priyanka is already overseeing the constituency on her mother’s behalf; she is well-versed in it, and the locals are aware of her. Amethi, too,” they say.

Confusing or calculating

Delaying the release of a candidate’s name does not always imply confusion, according to supporters; it might even be a calculated move.

However, critics point out that Amethi and Raebareli were on the Congress’s first list of Uttar Pradesh candidates for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, indicating that the grand old party is once again “afraid of exposing top leaders to the humiliation of a defeat”.

2019 saw the comeback of former Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul to retake the two seats regarded as the party’s “traditional bastions.” Rahul lost Amethi to Smriti Irani of the BJP, but Sonia prevailed in Raebareli.

“Gandhis were aware of the circumstances in Amethi both then and today. Observers state that Rahul would have been forced to miss the remaining five years of the Lok Sabha if he had not run for office in 2019 from Wayanad, Kerala.

Sonia made the decision to stay an MP by joining the Rajya Sabha since, it seems, things in Raebareli were also becoming “shaky.”

Rahul is running from Wayanad, which he won in 2019, in 2024.

However, party supporters claim that the present quiet over the two seats is “strategic and CEC’s decision will enthuse voters as well as take Congress’ opponents (read BJP) by surprise.”

Will Rahul run in the Amethi contest?

On April 26, Amethi will open for nominations, while Wayanad will hold polls on the same day.

There are experts who think that clarity will emerge only once the Wayanad is ultimately resolved.

With all its power, the BJP is going after Wayand, putting state president K Surendran up against Rahul and enforcing a fierce struggle there.

The BJP is making an effort to make sure Rahul Gandhi does not have an easy time in Wayanad this time. Speculators believe that Surendran will do in Amethi what Smriti Irani did in 2019.

Rahul is reportedly “open to the idea of contesting Amethi,” despite Priyanka’s silence over her potential to challenge Raebarelli.

According to reports, brother-in-law Robert seems to have a strong interest in Amethi.

They further say that in terms of Kharge, the Congress may see him as cashing in on his greatest asset, his caste. Everybody’s looking at the two chairs.