Phalodi Satta Bazar has a forecast for the Lok Sabha Election in 2024 that the BJP hopes never comes true

The Phalodi Satta Bazar, notorious for accurately predicting everything from polls to rain, has one prediction that could hurt the Bharatiya Janata Party (led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi) in multiple ways, just hours before the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections concludes.

The BJP is clearly leading the opposition INDIA group according to most pollsters as of right now, and PM Modi’s proposal for the NDA’s “Abki Baar 400 Paar” seems to be dominating the election campaign so far. States and seats where the BJP did not do well in the last two elections have key importance in achieving this ambitious goal. Maintaining control of the states it swept cleanly is as important for the BJP.

Most of the BJP’s support comes from the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, and Uttarakhand. This support base, of which the BJP alone controls 170 seats, spans 218 seats and is regarded as the keystone of the vast majority held by the current government.

Forecast for Phalodi Satta Bazar: Will the BJP Take Over the Heartland?

According to Satta Bazar’s estimates, the BJP may not be able to win all 25 of Rajasthan’s seats. The saffron party is predicted by the market to win 20–23 seats in the state, down from its total of 2–5 seats in 2014 and 2019. This is in line with recent estimates. Conversely, the Congress may be able to establish itself in the state within ten years, with estimates indicating that the party may get two to five seats.

With 29 Lok Sabha seats up for grabs in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is probably going to go the same route as it did in Rajasthan. The BJP is predicted by Phalodi Satta Bazar to win 24–25 seats in the state, which is a decrease from its landslide victory in the last two elections. However, it is anticipated that the Congress will gain two seats, and that other parties may win an additional two.

The BJP may win 68–70 seats in the Lok Sabha, up from the 62 seats it secured in the 2019 elections in Uttar Pradesh, the state with the most seats. Conversely, the Samajwadi Party may get 10–12 seats, with the remaining seats going to other parties. The BSP won ten seats in the 2019 elections, the SP five, Apna Dal (Sonelal) two, and the Congress one. Satta Bazar’s forecasts indicate that the BJP, despite its boasts of winning all 80 seats on the back of the Ram Mandir wave, is unlikely to replicate its success from 2019. The Uttar Pradesh seats of Azamgarh, Ghosi, Ghazipur, Etawah, Mainpuri, and Jaunpur seem to be difficult for the BJP to win.

Satta Bazar forecast: How many seats will the Congress and BJP win in 2024?
The BJP has considerable cause for concern in light of the most recent polling estimates from Rajasthan’s popular Phalodi Satta Bazar. Although local bookmakers are placing bets on the BJP’s comeback, their prediction would call into question the party’s lofty claims to have achieved its largest-ever victory.

The Congress is predicted to surpass 100 seats in the Satta Bazar’s most recent estimates, having fallen short of 50 seats in the previous two elections. Based on its popularity in the southern states and the progress it seems to be making in the heartland states of Rajasthan and MP, the Congress could have its best year since 2014. The party will become the Leader of the Opposition for the first time in fifteen years if it is able to reach the 100-point milestone on its own. Conversely, projections indicate that the BJP could get around 330 seats, while the NDA is expected to secure 350–370 seats.