Unsmooth roads in front of BJP’s “Mission 80”
When it came to winning 71 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections—when Narendra Modi was expected to be the prime minister—political observers believe that the governing BJP had already given its greatest performance to far. The BJP seems to be finding it difficult to achieve its goal of gaining all 80 seats by 2024. But realizing the war cry of “400 paar” would need completing this “Mission 80” in the face of difficulties.
The BJP lost 16 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the BSP and SP were in a grand alliance. Later, in the 2022 bypolls, it took control of two SP strongholds, Rampur and Azamgarh.
Political analyst Prof. AK Mishra said, “Taking an overview of the scenario after the announcement of candidates for a majority of seats, Mainpuri and Rae Bareli seem to be impregnable forts for the saffron brigade.”
Dimple Yadav, a bahu of the first family of the SP, is well-positioned to carry on her father-in-law Mulayam Singh Yadav’s political legacy in Mainpuri, an SP stronghold. If a member of the Gandhi family chooses to run for office in Rae Bareli, the Congress party’s traditional pocket borough, it would not be an easy battle for the BJP.
Prof. Mishra adds, “Moreover, if Congress leader Rahul Gandhi decides to confront BJP MP Smriti Irani in Amethi, it would not be a cakewalk.” Experts predict that the BJP may have issues in a few seats where people had anticipated fresh faces, but the party either reelected the current MPs or offered tickets to losing candidates in the hopes that the excitement around Ram Lalla’s consecration would work miracles.
Another obstacle is that, unlike in 2014, when the BJP-Apna Dal (S) coalition, the Congress-RLD-Mahan Dal alliance, the SP, and the BSP were all in the race, this campaign will not be a four-cornered one. The divide of Muslim votes had benefited the coalition headed by the BJP.
Another problem is that, with the BSP absent from 37 seats that went to the SP due to seat sharing, the change in Dalit votes in favor of the BJP may not be as noticeable in over 35 seats as it was in 2019. Party cadres would have difficulties even in the summer months in getting voters to the polls. “Our voter sits back on the day of polling, expecting a positive wave in favor of the party, and it impacts the party’s prospects,” a BJP senior said.
In the meanwhile, the BJP says it has devised a better plan to complete Mission 80, taking into consideration the obstacles. Prior to the upcoming elections, the BJP is demonstrating its commitment to fulfilling its promises by consecrating Ram Lalla. The fact that the SP-BSP-RLD alliance of 2019 seems to be more powerful than the current INDI Alliance, which includes the Congress and SP, is probably advantageous to the governing coalition.
Mayawati’s solo move will benefit the BJP and its allies by creating a rift in the Muslim voter base. In addition, in an effort to lessen the losses it sustained in 2019, the BJP has formed alliances with minor caste organizations such as Jayant Chaudhury’s RLD, Sanjay Nishad’s NISHAD, Anupriya Patel’s Apna Dal (S), and OP Rajbhar’s SBSP.
