“Is ‘Fort’ Gadkari impregnable?”

Union Minister Nitin Gadkari, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s candidate for the Nagpur Lok Sabha constituency, is poised to confront a challenging contest due to various factors, including anti-incumbency sentiments and the formidable presence of Congress candidate Vikas Thakre as his competitor.

Moreover, this time around, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) led by Prakash Ambedkar has pledged its support to the Congress nominees in this constituency. Thakre, a local Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA), has served as the party’s city president for over two decades. Nagpur, along with three other Lok Sabha constituencies, is scheduled for polling on April 19.

Gadkari, a stalwart of the BJP, secured victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections with a vote margin of 26.2%. He garnered a 54% vote share, defeating Congress’s Vilas Muttemwar who secured 27.9%. However, in the 2019 general elections, Gadkari’s winning margin narrowed to 18.3%. In terms of assembly segments, while Gadkari secured a 55.9% vote share, Congress’s Nana Patole garnered 37.6%. The BJP veteran maintained a significant lead in five segments, while Patole had a marginal lead in the Nagpur North SC reserved seat.

A prominent figure in Nagpur, Gadkari has, over the past decade, transformed the Congress stronghold into his own stronghold. Interestingly, he enjoys greater popularity than the BJP as a party.

Despite being from the Brahmin community, his inclusive approach and liberal political stance have garnered him supporters from all castes. Furthermore, he has contributed to the development of Nagpur city by enhancing connectivity through various modes of transportation.

“Gadkari is seen as a seasoned politician, but the journey ahead may not be smooth due to Thakre’s strong influence. Gadkari also carries the burden of ten years of anti-incumbency, with the number of dissatisfied individuals increasing. Thakre has a robust network in the city that could be mobilized during the campaign,” commented a political analyst.

“Thakre hails from the Maratha sub-caste Kunbi, which constitutes a significant portion of voters who have gradually shifted towards the BJP. However, Thakre has the potential to lure them back to the Congress. Additionally, Dalits and Muslims also form a sizable proportion of the constituency. If they rally behind their candidate, Gadkari could face a daunting challenge despite his visible advantage in the Nagpur constituency,” noted another observer.

On the contrary, Gadkari relies heavily on a well-organized RSS network and his impeccable reputation to counter Thakre’s network and electoral arithmetic. “Nagpur holds immense prestige for various reasons, including being the headquarters of the RSS at Reshim Baug in this constituency. Speculations were rife that Gadkari might not be nominated as some leaders were displeased with his liberal and progressive political inclinations and his aspirations for the prime ministership. If the BJP manages to secure the required numbers, other estranged allies like the Shiv Sena (UBT), Akali Dal, etc., may join forces to form the government.”

“The possibility of covert forces working against Gadkari in the upcoming elections cannot be ruled out,” remarked a senior journalist from Nagpur.