The “Jat factor” and the BJP and RLD’s love-hate relationship in western Uttar Pradesh

Only two percent of Uttar Pradesh’s votes are cast by Jats. However, political observers contend that their considerable influence in twelve districts of western Uttar Pradesh makes them a formidable force in the political landscape of the area.

The BJP, which has ruled the state since 2014, is presently aligning itself with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), a party that is thought to support the Jat group, demonstrating the tangible impact of the ‘Jat factor’.

The saffron party achieved a significant strategic victory by cracking the Jat problem, which allowed them to enter the difficult electoral terrain of Uttar Pradesh’s Wild West ahead of the election.

It has consistently managed to keep the “Jat card” in their back pockets and pull it in UP at election time throughout the years.

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However, this time the saffron party hurried to form an alliance with Jayant Chaudhary, the head of the RLD, who had just broken away from the Samajwadi Party.

Amit Shah was in high spirits as he and hundreds of other BJP members went door-to-door canvassing with their newfound allies, hoping to win over Jat votes in particular.

Additionally, Jayant Singh’s grandfather and former prime minister Chaudary Charan Singh received the Bharat Ratna from Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February, two months ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

In response, Jayant said, “Dil Jeet Liya” (earned hearts).

In summary, the BJP had secured both the Jat votes and Jayant’s heart.

The majority-farmer Jats have significant economic sway in their areas. The fact that in the 2009 elections a comparatively smaller party, RLD (then a junior member of the NDA), gained five seats in West UP while a national party like the BJP managed to get only three seats is a good indicator of the importance of the Jat community on votes.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah with Rashtriya Lok Dal head Jayant Singh in New Delhi.
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According to analysts, the BJP won all of the seats in the 2014 elections, which were conducted in the wake of the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, because Jats were very divided. Even in the Lok Sabha elections of 2019, this pattern persisted.

But when the Jats were split between their allegiance to their leader Jayant, who was a member of the SP alliance, and the BJP in the 2022 Assembly elections, warning flags went up for the BJP.

Mainly because of the BJP’s divisive agricultural regulations, the group, which is predominately made up of farmers, broke away from the party. The harm was done even if the three agricultural ordinances were removed before to the elections. The RLD became victorious as a result of the BJP’s defeat. As a consequence, the number of seats increased from one in 2017 to eight in 2022, causing a dramatic increase in RLD’s vote share. It was understandable why, in face of fierce resistance from the Jat leaders inside the party, the BJP leadership proceeded in full force to court Jayant.

“The thinking was that with RLD by our side, whatever discontent among farmers is remaining would also go away, and Jats will have no dilemma over which camp to support,” said a top BJP official.

Even while they are few in number overall, their concentration in the sugar belt gives them great power in the west.

“Jats’ dominating social rank gives them a great deal of power in society. Thus, their influence extends much beyond their local neighborhood,” the BJP official said.

Top 5 LS districts with a sizable Jat community

4 lakh in Baghpat

2.15 lakh in Mathura

2.1 lakh in Fatehpur Sikri

1.75 lakh in Kairana

1.70 lakh in Amroha

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Union Home Minister Amit Shah with Rashtriya Lok Dal head Jayant Singh in New Delhi.
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