The “migration trend” hurts Kerala’s youth vote share

With elections already underway in India, attention is focused on the critical role that the country’s young play in determining its future. But in Kerala, worries have surfaced due to a notable drop in the proportion of young voters.

Appropriately so. According to the most recent Election Commission statistics, there has been a decrease of almost six lakh voters between the ages of 18 and 39 as compared with the 2019 voters list.

Now let’s crunch some numbers:

Although 3.11 lakh voters between the ages of 18 and 19 were added to the electoral lists over the previous few months, there was a lot of debate about this. The final numbers, however, paint a different picture.

There were 5,49,969 first-time voters in the 18–19 age group in 2019. The number has decreased to 5,34,394 this year.

In the 20–29 age group, there were 47,22,867 votes in 2019. The figure has decreased to 44,71,938 this year. 2,50,929 votes separated them.

The largest reduction was in the 30-39 age bracket, where there were 3 lakh less votes this time around—57,67,127 in 2019 compared to 54,28, 204 in 2019.

Migration analyst S Irudaya Rajan said, “The number of young voters has declined as a result of the state’s population decline and youth migration.” “Once they pass the plus-two exams, some of them depart the nation.”

J Prabhash, a political expert, said that political parties were not giving young voters sufficient attention. “Prior to now, the parties would carefully enter the names of the young people on the voter list. Local officials knew exactly what they were talking about; every young voter was registered at the booth or ward level. Now that link is gone,” he said.

Another important factor mentioned by Prabhash was the state’s population growth steadily slowing down as a result of an increase in microfamilies. He went on to say that migration by itself would not account for such a sharp drop in voting turnout.

“The voter list often contains the names of persons who are emigrating to the Middle East. But a lot of people who go to the US and Europe don’t come back very frequently, so their names get taken off the list, he added. “At the moment, there aren’t as many deletions.”

40% – This year, 2,77,49,159 voters in Kerala are mostly between the ages of 30 and 50.

21% – Approximately 21% of voters on the electoral register are between the ages of 40 and 49.

21.4%-Original voters aged 30-39 make up 21.4% of the electorate.