Forget about El Niño; La Niña is on its way. Here are some meteorological predictions
March 2024 was the hottest March on record for Earth’s climate, breaking a record set last month. The El Niño phenomenon was cited as a major contributing factor.
According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), the month also carried on the global trend of record-breaking warm months, which has now lasted for ten straight.
March was the hottest month in the 175-year global climate record, with an average worldwide land and ocean surface temperature of 2.43 degrees Fahrenheit (1.35 degrees Celsius) above the average for the 20th century of 54.9 degrees Fahrenheit (12.7 degrees Celsius), according to NOAA. Additionally, March 2024 became the tenth straight month with record-high temperatures worldwide.
The WMO reports that the El Nino that occurred in 2023–24 peaked as one of the five greatest on record, bringing above-average temperatures to almost every land region between March and May.
The globe had dramatic weather events and record temperatures due to El Nino conditions, with 2023 being the hottest on record.
El Niño conditions are to blame for early and strong heat waves in southern areas of India.
El Niño, make way for La Niña, who is coming.
In its prognosis for the next Southwest Monsoon, released yesterday, the IMD said that La Niña will replace a waning El Niño this summer.
With a model uncertainty of ±5%, the monsoon projection indicated above-average seasonal rainfall from June to September, or 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The IMD said that moderate El Niño conditions are now dominating the equatorial Pacific area.
“The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other climate model forecasts suggest that during the early part of the monsoon season, El Niño conditions are likely to weaken further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the second half of the monsoon season,” the statement continued.
India and SSTs
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is now neutral across the Indian Ocean, and according to the most recent climate model projections, positive IOD conditions are projected to emerge later in the southwest monsoon season.
Scientists are “carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins,” according to the IMD, since sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are known to have a significant effect on the Indian monsoon.
According to meteorologists, the transition from El Niño to La Niña might affect winter conditions.
There is a broad negative link between the amount of snow cover in the spring over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia and the following rainfall from the Indian summer monsoon. There was less snow cover in the northern hemisphere from January to March 2024 than usual. The IMD states that favorable conditions for rainfall during the southwest monsoon season in 2024 would be provided by the anticipated La Nina, positive IOD, and below-average snow cover across the northern hemisphere.
Hurricanes and La Niña in the West
SSTs include both El Niño and La Niña.
The cyclical warming of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean around the equator, known as El Niño, peaked in late November and December and has been gradually decreasing over the last several months.
El Niño, which translates to “Little Boy” in Spanish, has a major impact on the weather in both the US and Canada.
The Pacific jet stream shifts south of its neutral point due to the warmer seas, making parts of the northern US and Canada drier and warmer than typical. However, NOAA notes that these times are wetter than normal and have worsened floods in the US Gulf Coast and Southeast.
El Niño has the opposite impact as La Niña, which translates to “Little Girl” in Spanish.
Trade winds are stronger than typical during La Niña episodes, driving more warm water toward Asia. The jet stream is forced northward by these chilly Pacific seas. Drought in the southern United States and severe rainfall and floods in the Pacific Northwest and Canada are the usual results of this. It adds that in a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer in the South and lower in the North than usual.
It is anticipated that La Niña will lead to an intensified Atlantic storm season.
Experts argue that La Niña enables stronger storms to form and increases the number of hurricanes that emerge.
They also note that the likelihood of a hurricane striking the Caribbean Islands and the mainland US rises significantly during La Niña and falls during El Niño.
