Global variables, macrodata, and the RBI’s interest rate decision will influence market patterns this week: Analysts

This week’s investor mood will be influenced by the Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision, macroeconomic data, and worldwide trends. Markets are looking to maintain their bullish momentum as FY24 ended on a high note, according to experts.

The movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude, the trading activities of foreign investors, and the rupee-dollar trend may also affect equities market trade.

In 2023–24, the 30-share BSE Sensex increased by 14,659.83 points, or 24.85%. On March 7, the benchmark reached its highest point ever, 74,245.17.

The Nifty increased by 4,967.15 points, or 28.61 percent, in 2023–2024.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will convene for a three-day meeting on April 3–5 to discuss interest rates and examine the status of the economy. Starting on April 1, 2024, auto businesses will provide their monthly sales figures for March, with an emphasis on auto stocks.

People will also be keeping an eye on the price of crude oil and how the rupee performs in relation to the US currency. Additionally, they will be monitoring the investments made by both domestic and foreign institutional investors (DIIs) and FIIs, according to Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd.

He also said that information such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI for March would be released on April 1st, 2024, and that the speech by US Fed Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set for April 3, 2024.

On April 5, US non-farm payroll statistics and the March unemployment rate will be released. These variables will be closely watched since they might affect market sentiment, Gour said.

The market capitalization (mcap) of BSE-listed businesses increased by Rs 1,28,77,203.77 crore to Rs 3,86,97,099.77 crore in FY24, reflecting the optimistic mood of investors.

“Key domestic and international economic statistics, vehicle sales in India, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing in the US and India, factory orders, job vacancies in the US, non-farm payrolls in the US, and the unemployment rate will all influence the market outlook.

The monetary policy committee of the Reserve Bank of India will convene from April 3–5, 2024, to determine policy rates. Important indicators about the status of the economy, inflation, and interest rates would be provided by the monetary policy statement, according to Master Capital Services Ltd. Senior Vice President Arvinder Singh Nanda.

The BSE benchmark increased by 819.41 points, or 1.12%, last week, while the NSE Nifty gained by 230.15 points, or 1.4%.

We anticipate that volatility will be significant again this week due to the planned MPC policy meeting. Global players will continue to follow the US markets’ lead, as they are shown a notable degree of resilience, according to Ajit Mishra, SVP of Technical Research at Religare Broking Ltd.