Examining Odisha’s Parliamentary Constituencies: From a One-Sided Battle in 2014 to a Fiercely Fought Battle in 2024

The Narendra Modi wave in the state was broken in 2014 by Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, who won 117 of the 147 assembly seats and 20 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats.

Nine parliamentary constituencies, including Balasore, Berhampur, Bhadrak, Bhubaneswar, Balangir, Dhenkanal, Kandhamal, Keonjhar, and Mayurbhanj, had received more than one lakh votes, while three other constituencies, including Aska, Cuttack, and Jajpur, had received more than three lakh votes.

Western Odisha saw the relative weakness of BJD in 2014, with the exception of Balangir. The BJD narrowly prevailed in the western districts of Odisha, including Bargarh, Kalahandi, Sambalpur, and Koraput. Sundargarh produced the BJP’s lone victory in 2014. Jual Oram, the BJP candidate, narrowly beat Dilip Kumar Tirkey, the BJD candidate, by 18,829 votes in a tightly contested contest. Hemanand Biswal of the Congress was ranked third.

After Prime Minister Narendra Modi finished his first term five years later, in 2019, the BJP had a sharp upswing in its fortunes in Odisha, particularly in the legislative elections. The BJP secured eight seats, the Congress one, and the BJD twelve. The BJD’s lead in Aska, the home constituency of the chief minister, Cuttack, and Jajpur, which it had won by more than three lakh votes in 2014, dropped to between two and one lakh votes.

With the exception of Jagatsinghpur, the three seats that the BJD had won by more than two lakh votes in 2014 witnessed a sharp decline in the victory margin, with Puri turning out to be a tightly contested contest. In Puri, Pinaki Misra of the BJD narrowly beat Sambit Patra of the BJP by 11,714 votes.

The BJD could only hold onto one of the nine seats it had won by a margin of more than one lakh votes in 2014, having lost four to the BJP in 2019 and winning four by narrow margins. Of the cities it held in 2014—Berhampur, Bhadrak, Bhubaneswar, Balangir, Dhenkanal, Kandhamal, Keonjhar, and Mayurbhanj—it lost four to the BJP in 2019. These cities were Balasore, Bhubaneswar, Balangir, and Mayurbhanj. Remarkably, the BJP prevailed in each of these seats by very narrow margins.

Pratap Sarangi of the BJP beat Rabindra Jena of the BJD in Balasore by just over 12,000 votes. Arun Patnaik of the BJD lost to BJP candidate Aparajita Sarangi in Bhubaneswar by just over 23,000 votes. In Balangir, Sangeeta Kumari Singh Deo of the BJP beat Kalikesh Singh Deo of the BJD by slightly over 19,000 votes. BJP’s Bishweswar Tudu defeated BJD’s Debashish Mamdi by more than 25,000 votes to win Mayurbhanj.

By more than 28,000 votes, the BJD was able to hold onto Bhadrak, over 35,000 votes in Dhenkanal, over 66,000 votes in Keonjhar, and over 94,000 votes in Berhampur. Only Kandhamal, one of the nine seats it had won by a margin of more than a lakh votes, could it hold onto with a comparable margin.

Examine the outcomes of four significant seats in western Odisha that the governing BJD narrowly won in 2014: Bargarh, which was won by just over 11,000 votes; Kalahandi, which received over 55,000 votes; Sambalpur, which received over 30,000 votes; and Koraput, which received 19,000 votes. All of them were narrowly lost by the BJD in 2019—three to the BJP and one to the Congress.

2019 saw Suresh Pujari of the BJP win Bargarh by more than 63,000 votes, with Prasanna Acharya of the BJD coming in second. In Sambalpur, Nitesh Ganga Deb of the BJP defeated Nalini Kanta Praddhan of the BJD by just over 9,000 votes. Basant Kumar Panda of the BJP won Kalahandi by just over 26,000 votes. Congress’s Saptagiri Ulka defeated BJD in Koraput by a razor-thin margin of little over 3,000 votes.

Jual Oram, who ran on the BJP ticket in 2019, won Sundergarh by an overwhelming 22,300 votes, compared to the razor-thin 18,000 votes he received in 2014. Sunita Biswal of BJD came in a distant second.

The 2024 Odisha parliamentary elections—which will take place in Cuttack, Kendrapada, Balasore, Bhubaneswar, Puri, and Sambalpur—are predicted to be competitive and intensely contested, in contrast to the one-sided contest in 2014. There are concerns over whether the Congress can regain any lost momentum in the 2024 elections, particularly in light of Rahul Gandhi’s padayatra, and the contest is being presented as one between Naveen Patnaik and Narendra Modi.

Both the BJD and the BJP have embraced party defectors, fielded them from esteemed seats, and adjusted their approaches to guarantee victory. While the Congress may fight in certain western Odisha seats like Koraput and Kalahandi, it is trailing behind in the war on perception.

Six-time BJD winner Bhatruhari Mahtab, a resident of Cuttack, changed allegiance to the BJP and would run for office from Cuttack on a BJP ticket. To challenge the seasoned leader, BJD has enlisted Santrupt Misra, a former HR director of the Aditya Birla company. Actor Anubhav Mohanty, the winner of Kendrapara, who handily beat Baijyant Panda in 2019, also joined the BJP. Anshuman Mohanty, a former Congress MLA, has been selected by the BJD to challenge Panda.

Former BJP vice-president and spokeswoman Lekhashree Samantsinghar joined the BJD and received a ticket from Balasore. She will now face off against Pratap Sarangi, a BJP veteran and incumbent MP. A heated contest is also expected in Bhubaneswar, where the BJD has fielded Manmath Routray, the youngest son of senior Congressman and six-time MLA Suresh Routray, to challenge Aparajita Sarangee, the incumbent MP for the BJP, who narrowly defeated the BJD in 2019.

Arup Patnaik, a former commissioner of Mumbai Police, has been selected by the BJD to challenge Puri-based BJP spokesman Sambit Patra. In 2019, Patra lost to BJD’s Pinaki Misra by a narrow margin, while Patnaik lost to Sarangee. Another major fight is about to happen in Sambalpur, where BJD organization secretary and Jajpur MLA Pranab Prakash Das will square off against BJP minister Dharmendra Pradhan. There will be a tough struggle for Sambalpur and the other seats in western Odisha, with Naveen Patnaik leading from the front by competing from the neighboring assembly constituency of Kanabanji for the first time.