Donald Trump and Joe Biden ask Americans whether they feel “better off” today than four years ago

“Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Voters’ responses to that question have seldom been so intricate.

On his Truth Social platform on Monday, the former president Donald Trump posed the well-known query of his followers in all capitals. As he concluded his tour of the Southwest this week, President Joe Biden performed the same three times at three separate fundraisers in Texas.

All the contenders are expecting that the results go in their favor; nevertheless, the outcome could depend on whether voters are considering the COVID-19 epidemic, their financial situation, or a more general feeling of wellbeing.

Four years ago, the nation was experiencing a severe coronavirus shutdown that resulted in skyrocketing unemployment and a collapsing stock market. Now that the markets are rising and unemployment is at or near record lows, the presumed Democratic and Republican candidates are speeding toward a rematch in which the virus is, for the majority of Americans, only a painful memory.

If the 2020 presidential contest was characterized by how the once-in-a-century epidemic was handled, then it seems that voters will be thinking about other things while making their decisions in 2024.

“Speaking of Donald Trump, just a few days ago, he asked the famous question at one of his rallies: Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” This week, Biden told donors. “Well, Donald, I’m glad you asked that question, man, because I hope everyone in the country takes a moment to think back to what it was like in March of 2020.”

From there, Biden launched into a litany of terrible incidents from the early stages of the pandemic, including crammed hospital ERs, first responders risking their lives to treat patients, and nurses dressing in trash bags because PPE was so scarce.

Trump, on the other hand, casts a broader net when considering the psychology of Americans.

“Under the Trump administration, you were better off, your family was better off, your neighbours were better off, your communities were better off, and our country was far, far, far better off; that’s for sure,” he said during a rally in February. “America was stronger and tougher and richer and safer and more confident.”

Trump said, “You have wars that never would have taken place.” “Ukraine would never have been invaded by Russia. There would have been no assault on Israel. Inflation would not have occurred.”

The origins of the “are you better off” question may be found in the 1980 presidential contest, when Ronald Reagan used a televised debate to ridicule then-President Jimmy Carter and win the presidency.

According to an AP-NORC survey conducted in February, just 24% of Americans felt their situation had improved since Biden took office, while 41% felt it had gotten worse and 34% answered neither. The national economy and the nation as a whole, according to majorities, were in worse shape than they were when Biden took office.

Biden advisers argue that partisanship has surpassed the issue, similar to other polling indicators of presidential success. They claim that data from internal polls shows that voters tend to forget about the epidemic until informed of it, and that when questioned about Trump, they recall the years before the outbreak rather than 2020.

Biden’s staff said that they had not planned to pose the Reagan issue to voters, emphasizing that their goal is to meet them where they are. However, Biden responded quickly after Trump’s remark.

Speaking with wealthy Texas contributors He reminded his audience that four years before, food store shelves were empty, unemployment skyrocketed, the stock market crashed, and morgues were being erected outside of hospitals due to the high death toll. At the time, Trump was pushing experimental medicines on the populace while ignoring the counsel of his public health specialists.

“Do you recall when he said to inject bleach?” In Houston, Biden inquired. Following a few jeers, Biden said, “I believe he must have done it.”

Meanwhile, Biden’s campaign team unveiled a commercial that included some of the most divisive moments from Trump’s 2020 campaign, such as the “bleach” remark, his admission that he would give his handling of the epidemic a “10,” and his statement that “it is what it is” in reference to viral fatalities.

Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s national press secretary, refuted Biden’s assertions in a statement.

“Joe Biden and his media allies can cherry-pick numbers from the worst of the COVID crisis all they want, but President Trump continues to lead Biden in the polls because Americans know that Biden has been a disaster and that they were much better off under President Trump,” the spokesperson stated.

Four years ago, voters gave Trump terrible ratings for how he handled the epidemic, costing him the presidency and resulting in the deaths of almost 1.1 million Americans from COVID-19. However, the bulk of those fatalities happened when Biden was president and he was fighting to increase vaccination rates for the life-saving vaccines that were created during Trump’s administration as well as to contain new strains.

Thus, there are many ways to arrive at the “better-off” response.

As of right now, the response is definitely “it depends,” according to Republican strategist Alex Conant. “The epidemic is done, yet nobody attributes the vaccinations that put a stop to it or holds Trump responsible for its cause. Only after a period of extraordinary inflation, which many are still furious about, is the economy doing well. The majority of people don’t know the answer, which is why it’s unknown how the election will turn out so soon.

“I don’t think any voters want to go back to the dark days of 2020, but most voters don’t like 2024 very much either, judging by the poll numbers,” he said.

Many voters did, in fact, feel better off during the epidemic in many respects, thanks to generous government relief packages. Their bank accounts ballooned enormously, while interest rates and inflation remained very low because of the coronavirus shutdown. These alleged advantages were funded by borrowing on the part of the government, as the Office of Management and Budget reports that budget deficits in 2020 and 2021 were $3.1 trillion and about $2.8 trillion, respectively.

Over the course of the three rounds of pandemic relief, average yearly earnings increased. According to analysts at the University of California, Berkeley, in March 2021, the average disposable income of the poorest 50% of US earnings increased to $46,000 after inflation since they were recipients of Biden’s coronavirus therapy. Since then, the average discretionary income has decreased to $26,100 as of March 2023. People may feel worse off as a consequence, even if their salaries have increased since the epidemic began in early 2020.

However, Biden is attempting to frame the subject in a forward-looking manner in order to maintain the contrast with Trump at the center of his reelection campaign.

The issue goes beyond just returning the nation to Trump’s pre-takeover state. He informed donors that’s where he wanted to lead us right now.

It’s not about me, folks, he said in closing. It has to do with him.