Is BJP able to seize Vellore’s Dravidian fort?

Despite its notoriously hot summers, Vellore is more akin to an underdiscovered metropolis with a wealth of attractions, including mountains, woods, ancient archeological sites, and religious centers. With a significant Muslim population, the area offers a peaceful social framework that might lead the nation through these turbulent times.

The Dravidian giants and the BJP are predicted to engage in a fierce three-way race in the seat during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. By trying to solidify its foundations, the saffron party has been aiming for Vellore for the last two years at the very least. Psephologists have a difficult task since, despite the DMK’s substantial support base in this area, the constituency has historically swung in many different ways.

In spite of the DMK’s four victories (in 1971, 2004, 2009, and 2019), the AIADMK gained the seat in 2014. PMK has made a significant impression as well with its wins in 1998 and 1999. This time, the candidates are BJP’s AC Shanmugam, AIADMK’s Dr. S. Pasupathi, and DMK incumbent Kathir Anand.

In Vellore, the Muslim community is mostly found in Pernambut, Ambur, and Vaniyambadi. The BJP’s plan is to use the popularity of its Arani-born candidate, businessman and former Vellore MP AC Shanmugam, to win over Hindu votes in this area. Amit Shah, the Union Home Minister, called a public gathering last year under the banner “Velvom Vellore” (success in Vellore).

The backing of Hindu organizations like Hindu Munnani, however, may make up for the BJP’s weak organizational position in the area.

In both 2014 and 2019, Shanmugam made an attempt to compete in Vellore, but he was only able to place second. In 2019, the difference between his win and defeat was just around 8,000 votes. He started organizing medical camps and charity activities far early in order to prepare for the 2024 elections.

Although diverse, the constituency is mostly amicable. However, incidents such as Hindu fringe groups objecting to the building of a mosque in a mostly Hindu neighborhood highlight the underlying issues that the BJP may be able to take advantage of.

“Ramu Manivannan, the president of the Vellore Movement and a retired political science professor, believes that caste mathematics has a big influence in the Vellore vote bank.” It is believed that Muslims, Vanniars, and Mudaliars have the largest vote banks. Kathir Anand and Pasupathi are members of the Vanniyar caste, but AC Shanmugam is a Mudaliyar.

Under the condition of anonymity, a Muslim party official from Ambur said, “The BJP candidate’s campaigns are subtle in the Muslim pockets.” The party that Shanmugam formed, Puthiya Needhi, is listed on the banners; neither the BJP nor PM Narendra Modi’s image are there.

Shanmugam is sure that he will win. “I ran for office in 2014 on the BJP ticket and finished in second place; it is still possible to win this time.” In 1984, he won the election on the AIADMK ticket.

In the meanwhile, voter dissatisfaction is posing a threat to incumbent MP Kathir Anand’s success. According to a campaign participant, pressure is being applied to council members and MLAs who are trying to win his support. Votes are being sought just in Chief Minister MK Stalin’s name and his well-liked policies, not the incumbent’s report card. According to DMK sources, local cadre pressured the top leadership to hand up Vellore seat to alliance partner Congress out of concern about voter reaction. However, with the departure of the BJP and AIADMK, their aspirations took form again.

According to voters TNIE talked with, the MP did not often visit the area and did not do enough for them. Nonetheless, the DMK has effective grassroots activists and may be able to consolidate support among Dalits and other minority voters, since it has power in five of the six assembly districts. Despite not keeping its pledges during the election, a large number of minority voters said that the DMK is the best option. In places where they have voting power, the Jamath leaders are likely to aggressively support the DMK coalition, but only for the party and not for the candidate. During his campaigning, Kathir Anand criticizes the AIADMK and the BJP for implementing CAA. He had said, “DMK is the only party concerned about the welfare of Muslims.”

The adoption of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act could rank highly among Vellore voters, which would be disastrous for the AIADMK. Additionally, their candidate in Vellore is not well-liked. The AIADMK was scurrying to recruit a candidate here after their attempt to field a Muslim candidate failed.

“AIADMK has a traditional Muslim vote bank in the region and we will get those votes by explaining the party’s changed stance,” said a Vellore-based prospective SDPI leader.

This might perhaps get a few votes since DMDK is a member of the AIADMK alliance and its head, Premalatha, comes from Gudiyatham. In an interview with TNIE, Dr. Pasupathi dismissed worries of encountering Muslim resistance. He said, “Our party’s departure from the BJP is due to our concern for their welfare.”

Principal issues

The people’s main desire is the completion of Vellore Airport, which has been progressing since 2018. A local named Prasanna said, “Terminal building and civil works are in progress but the long delay of this project has irked people.”

Among the main requests are greater rail services from the stations in Vellore Town and Katpadi, as well as more train stops at Ambur. Other key requests include building an approach road in tribal regions, improving roads in Gudiyatham, taking action against tanneries that discharge untreated water, and building an outer ring road in Vellore city. To improve their employment prospects, people are also requesting bigger industrial and IT parks.

“The Palar River’s restoration ought to be a top priority. Building check dams, maintaining them, and connecting Palar with Thenpennai are long-overdue tasks, according to Mullai, a Vaniyambadi farm leader.