LS elections’ first phase: Will Modi-Yogi’s appeal prevail against the UP’s caste system

In Uttar Pradesh, the popularity of Prime Minister Modi, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s tough handling of the law and order crisis, and the excitement around the Ram temple have begun to eclipse the caste system.

The caste element has always been a role in the state whenever elections are conducted, but right now, PM Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityananth’s popularity are taking precedence over all other concerns.

There is a noticeable difference this time around in the first round of elections in western Uttar Pradesh, where the votes cast by Muslims and Dalits often determine the outcome of the candidates. This time, however, the Modi and Yogi influence seems to be the only thing operating.

The destiny of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will also be determined by how well its candidates do in this round.

The BSP changed its approach by fielding candidates from castes that are often thought to be the BJP’s main supporters; yet, it seems that these candidates are unable to take these votes away from the BJP.

For instance, in 2014, Rajendra Agrawal of the BJP won Meerut by a margin of around 4,700 votes, while Sanjeev Baliyan of the BJP won Muzaffarnagar by a narrow margin of 6,400 votes.

The BSP has put up Dara Singh Prajapati, an OBC, in Muzaffarnagar, where Muslims make up over 30% of the voter base, in an attempt to win over both his community’s and the party’s traditional Dalit community’s support.

But in each of these seats, the BJP has gained support, and caste issues have become less significant.

The BJP has gained a decisive advantage thanks to the rallies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Meerut and Yogi Adityanath in Muzaffarnagar.

In Meerut, the BSP has Brahmin Deovrat Tyagi running against Arun Govil of the BJP, who portrayed Lord Rama in the television series “Ramayana.” In addition to Muslim and Dalit votes, the BSP candidate is vying for the support of some 50,000 “Tyagi” voters in Meerut. However, there are rumors that Dalits and higher castes are gearing up to support the BJP this time.

This time, there has been an intriguing development: after becoming frustrated with Mayawati’s indecisiveness, Dalits are also leaning towards the BJP, and the sentiment among Muslims towards the party has somewhat improved.

Unlike the Assembly elections, many predict that Muslim voters will exercise more subtlety this time around. They would consider the advantages they have reaped from the BJP regimes at the federal and state levels before making an informed decision between the BSP and the SP-Congress alliance.

A merchant in Meerut named Haji Ikhlaq declares, “For us, the BJP is no longer untouchable. We will vote for them because we have benefited from their social programs and see no reason not to. Muslims are abandoning their previous way of thinking, and these elections will show it.

Votes were divided in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014 and the Assembly elections of 2017 due to the minority voters’ backing for both SP and BSP candidates. With 71 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 and 312 Assembly seats in 2022, the BJP has the greatest number of seats.

The Samajwadi Party saw a consolidation of the minority support in 2022, although it was unable to surpass 112 seats.

The only Dalits in the west of Uttar Pradesh who are expected to stick with Mayawati are the Jatavs.

In Saharanpur, Brahmin candidate Raghav Lakhan Pal of the BJP faces up against Imran Masood of the Congress-SP coalition and Majid Ali of the BSP, who is among the wealthiest contenders.

The BSP is putting up a strong fight against Imran Masood, which may make it simpler for the BJP to win.

The votes in her caste are expected to choose SP candidate and former mayor Sunita Verma, a Jatav, in Meerut, which would weaken the BSP’s base.

Chandra Shekhar Azad, the leader of the Azad Samaj Party, is probably going to chip away at the BSP’s support base in Nagina (SC).

A local politician predicted that “the BJP’s victory run will be much easier if Chandra Shekhar dents BSP.”

In Moradabad, BJP’s Kunwar Sarvesh Singh may have an easier time winning the seat as BSP’s Israr Saifi and SP’s Ruchi Veera are embroiled in a fierce contest for Muslim and Dalit votes.

BSP, however, is not a significant force in Pilibhit.

Lodh Rajputs, or Lodhs, would be the decisive element in Pilibhit. Who will win this community’s vote—SP’s Bhagwat Saran Gangwar or BJP’s Jitin Prasada—will determine who has the final laugh.

Meanwhile, Jitin Prasada is enjoying a high due to the Modi wave, and during the last week, his position has been reinforced by the Prime Minister’s and Yogi Adityanath’s rallies.

Much will rely on how fervently people in Rampur turn out on election day. Muslim voters are clearly divided as a result of SP leader Mohd Azam Khan’s rejection of Muhibullah Nadwi, the party’s official nominee. His followers are fully behind BSP leader Zeeshan Khan.