What does the sectoral and Nifty FII rollover data for April portend for the May series in the markets

Nifty’s rollover in April was higher than the three-month average at 83%, while Banknifty’s rollover was lower at 79%. More stock futures traded higher last month than on average during the preceding three months.

FIIs own 22% of the market’s total long positions in index futures, and 38% of their positions in the index futures sector were longs relative to their total long positions in index futures. The industries with the highest rolls were chemical, cement, real estate, automotive, consumer durables, and healthcare; among these, cement, auto, and healthcare had rollovers that were higher than the preceding three months’ average.

With a contribution of 207 points, banking stocks had the most positive impact on the Nifty. The following three categories are automotive, telecom, and metals, with a combined point total of 164. With a combined contribution of 140 points, the IT, oil and gas, and infrastructure sectors are the ones that did not help the Nifty.

In April, the metal index had a growth of 11.9%, while the increases in real estate and media were 6.9% and 5.16%, respectively. Only the Nifty IT had a decline out of all the key sectoral indices.

All of the optimism that Thursday’s strong increase had brought forth is gone with Friday’s significant reduction. We are not persuaded, nevertheless, that we would need to go back to a 23200 perspective from a 20300 one.

First off, the VIX is close to 10 and does not indicate a wide trading range or significant swings that would indicate a certain direction. More significantly, directional moving indicators have been softer, supporting the indications of the VIX.

The Minus DI declined on Friday, indicating that negative momentum is absent even if the week’s finish suggests otherwise. Our inclination is to remain neutral and give more weight to the ADX’s indications.

Though it is less probable now, traders will still find chances as we see the Nifty fluctuating by around three percentage points on each side of 22300 for a week or two without really going off in either direction.