At the meeting in Vilnius, NATO’s cohesion will be examined

When leaders assemble for the NATO summit this week in Vilnius, Lithuania, the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine will put new pressures on the alliance’s famed cohesiveness.

The largest security alliance in the world is having trouble agreeing to accept Sweden as its 32nd member. Member countries’ military expenditure continues to fall short of established benchmarks.

A year was added to the present secretary general’s tenure as a result of the failure to reach a consensus on who should be NATO’s next leader.

The issues surrounding how Ukraine should be brought into the alliance are perhaps the most complex.

Some claim that allowing Ukraine membership in NATO would honour a commitment made years ago and be an essential step in preventing Russian aggression in Eastern Europe. Others worry that it would be seen as a provocative act that might lead to a bigger war.

Arguments among friends are usual, and the current list of disagreements is little compared to earlier worries that Donald Trump might abandon the alliance while president.

However, the difficulties arise at a time when President Joe Biden and his colleagues are very motivated to show that members can get along.

According to Douglas Lute, the US ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama, “any fissure, any lack of solidarity provides an opportunity for those who would oppose the alliance.”

Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, is ready to take advantage of differences as he battles to advance in Ukraine and deals with domestic political issues, such as the fallout from the Wagner mercenary group’s short uprising.

You shouldn’t create any opportunities, Lute said. You don’t want to show any seams or gaps, she said.

In some ways, the situation in Ukraine has given NATO, which was established at the start of the Cold War as a defence against Moscow, new life.

In order to support Ukraine’s continuing counteroffensive, members of the alliance have sent tonnes of military equipment there, while Finland broke a long period of nonalignment by joining NATO as its 31st member.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, said in an interview with The Associated Press, “I think it’s appropriate to look at all the success.” So, contrary to what Putin expected, in my opinion, the invasion has reinforced NATO.

He emphasised the rise in military expenditure in other nations as well as Germany’s transition to a more strong defence strategy.

The controversial cluster bombs will be sent to Ukraine, the US confirmed on Friday.

As it explodes in the air, dispersing tiny “bomblets” over a large region and striking many targets at once, such a bomb provides a larger danger of injury to civilians. Ukraine has pledged to handle it with care.

Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, one of Western Europe’s most ardent supporters of Ukraine in the conflict, reiterated her nation’s condemnation of Russian aggression but called for the “universal application of the principles” of the global agreement prohibiting the production, transfer, and stockpiling of cluster munitions in a statement on Saturday night.

Farhan Haq, the deputy spokesperson for the UN, said that Antonio Guterres “wants countries to abide by the terms of that convention and as a result, of course, he does not want there to be continued use of cluster munitions on the battlefield.”

However, the protracted conflict has given room for other issues to fester or appear.

Leaders of NATO specifically said in 2008 that Ukraine will ultimately join, but little progress has been made in that direction. In 2022, Putin made an effort to seize Kiev after seizing portions of the nation in 2014. This endeavour resulted in the present conflict.

Daniel Fried, a former US ambassador to Poland who is now a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council, said that “a grey zone is a green light for Putin.”

Instead of taking the more risky step of formally inviting Ukraine to join NATO, the US and Germany say that the emphasis should be on providing arms and ammunition to assist Ukraine win the ongoing fight.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, nations on NATO’s Eastern border, desire more certain guarantees on potential membership.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, is advocating for it as well. He said that the “ideal” outcome of the Vilnius summit would be an invitation for his nation to join the alliance during a visit to Prague on Thursday.

National security advisor to Vice President Biden Jake Sullivan called the conference “an important moment on that pathway towards membership” and said that allies must “discuss the reforms that are still necessary for Ukraine to come up to NATO standards.”

NATO might take advantage of the situation to improve ties with Ukraine by establishing the NATO-Ukraine Council and giving Kyiv a place at the negotiation table.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the primary impediment to Sweden’s and its neighbour Finland’s efforts to join NATO, will also be in the focus in Vilnius.

Erdogan charges Sweden of being overly tolerant of anti-Islamic protests and terrorist Kurdish organisations that have fought an ongoing conflict in Turkey for decades.

Recently, Sweden modified its anti-terrorism laws and lifted its weapons embargo against Turkey.

However, Erdogan hinted that there will be more challenges after a man burnt a copy of the Quran outside a mosque in Stockholm last week.

He conflated the “those who permitted the crime” with the actual criminals.

The supply of F-16 fighter planes has also resulted in a deadlock between the US and Turkey. Erdogan requests the modernised aircraft, but Biden contends that Sweden’s NATO membership must be resolved first.

The US is sure that Sweden will join NATO “in the not-too-distant future,” according to Sullivan, but it’s not certain whether the issue will be settled at the summit.

Erdogan has already used a NATO meeting for Turkish advantage. He resisted Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s nomination in 2009 as secretary general but finally consented after gaining certain key positions for Turkish officials inside the alliance.

Erdogan’s friends are becoming more frustrated with him, according to Max Bergmann, a former State Department official who now directs the Europe Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. This irritation is fueled by worries about Erdogan’s relations to Putin, democratic reversals, and sanctions evasion.

They have attempted to be amicable, Bergmann added. The issue is whether it’s appropriate to become substantially more combative.

The acceptance of Sweden’s participation in Hungary is also being postponed by Prime Minister Vitkor Orban. Sen. Jim Risch, the senior Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has responded by opposing a US weapons deal to Hungary for USD 735 million.

He said, “We don’t want members who are more interested in pursuing their personal or individual interests than doing all they can to enhance the alliance. “I’m just sick of it,” she said.

Risch, however, disagreed with the notion that these differences reflect a lack of strength within NATO.

These kind of issues “always come up in an alliance,” he added. This is the world’s most effective and powerful military alliance, as shown by the fact that we have dealt with them and will continue to do so.

The conference agenda had at least one potentially explosive topic removed. Members of NATO decided to give Jens Stoltenberg another year in charge rather than try to reach agreement on a new commander.

Since he started working there in 2014, his tenure has been extended four times.

The Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen had been seen as a favourite choice since most people wanted a woman to fill the top position moving forward.

Poland, however, contended that because there had previously been two consecutive Nordic secretaries general, a candidate from the Baltic region should come next. (The prime ministers of Norway at the time, Stoltenberg, and Denmark at the time, Rasmussen)

Others are wary of accepting a candidate from the Baltics since their leaders often take a more confrontational stance towards Russia, such as by encouraging Ukraine to join NATO right away.

Over NATO’s revised strategies for fending off any invasion that Russia may launch on partner territory, further disputes loom.

Being the largest change since the Cold War, Skip Davis, a former NATO official who is now a senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, warned that it would include “lots of arm wrestling and card trading.”

“That’s an issue that will cause tension and dissent, and that’s not what the Vilnius summit is all about,” he said.