Germany wants to strengthen its defenses and deterrent

In response to Donald Trump’s recent comments on NATO, German lawmakers and several media outlets have demanded that Germany drastically increase its military budget and maybe consider lifting its nuclear arms embargo.

During a Saturday campaign event in South Carolina, the former US president said that he had informed NATO partners that the US would not protect any nation under Russian invasion if it did not “pay its bills.” The presidential contender said, “In fact, I would encourage (Russia) to do whatever the hell they want.”
Chancellor Olaf Scholz was under increasing pressure after the speech from a number of horrified German legislators to increase military expenditure as quickly as possible, despite the chancellor having promised a €100 billion ($108 billion) special fund in February 2022.
This special fund should be tripled, according to conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) defense spokesperson Roderich Kiesewetter. Meanwhile, Scholz’s own party, the Social Democrats (SPD), budget policy spokesperson Andreas Schwarz told the Süddeutsche Zeitung that “exempting all defense costs from the debt brake would certainly have its charm.”
Fulfilling the needs of NATO
Still, this argument is scarcely new: All analysts agree that more funding is needed for the German military. In fact, parliamentary defense commissioner Eva Högl, a fellow Social Democrat, said in her formal report from last March that the Bundeswehr need €300 billion to satisfy its demands, in part because its resources have been exhausted in support of arming Ukraine.
“People were reminded of the seriousness of the situation by Trump’s attention-grabbing starkness over the weekend,” said Rafael Loss, a military policy expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
Germany, in the meanwhile, may claim that it is “paying its bills,” as demanded by Trump. Naturally, Trump’s language is deceptive since, although receiving some direct funding, NATO is not a club that requires payment from its members. However, in 2014, the defense ministers of NATO member states decided to allocate at least 2% of their GDP on defense. Chancellor Scholz has reaffirmed his commitment to Germany reaching this goal going forward, despite the fact that it was previously falling short.
However, a substantial portion of it may be attributed to the €100 billion pledged by the chancellor two years ago. it promise is expected to be fulfilled by 2028, after which there may be a €56 billion gap in Germany’s yearly defense budget, according to some estimates. The debt brake, which limits public borrowing, should be loosened; yet, the CDU has successfully sued Germany in the Constitutional Court to uphold the debt brake regulations.
However, the way and when the money is spent by the Bundeswehr is more of an issue than the amount of the budget. “Some of the problems we’re seeing now with the special fund is that it takes time to spend such a vast amount of money,” Loss said. According to the chancellery, contracts for new military aircraft, particularly F-35 fighter fighters and Chinook transporter helicopters, now account for €70 billion of the special budget.
The nuclear taboo in Germany
Another issue is: who would provide the nuclear weapons to the EU? At now, the French government is not proposing to expand its nuclear deterrence to include Europe. That implies that another EU nation, like Germany, would have to get nuclear weapons; but, given the current state of affairs, that too seems very improbable in the near future.
Germany’s self-imposed nuclear weapons ban has historical ties to the post-World War II order and West Germany’s participation in NATO security planning. The US government gave West Germany security assurances and a part in supplying the aircraft for transporting nuclear bombs in an effort to stop proliferation.
In return, Germany agreed to a number of conditions, one of which was to promise not to acquire or produce nuclear weapons in the “Two-Plus-Four” pact on its reunification in 1990. Naturally, breaking this arrangement would lead to serious diplomatic issues.
“In the current context, I see no reason why Germany should acquire nuclear weapons itself, and there are good reasons not to,” said Loss, an ECFR expert. The world nuclear order would be severely disrupted by it: proliferation in other regions of the globe may be sparked, and Germany might be subject to harsh international penalties. Germany would therefore find itself in a dire situation.”