MVA-VBA agreement is unclear, but the saffron party stands to gain

It is anticipated that Maharashtra will have a big impact on whether the BJP’s goal of winning more than 400 seats in the Lok Sabha in 2024 is realized or not.

With 48 Lok Sabha seats, the state has the second-highest number after Uttar Pradesh with 80.

Political observers here explain that if the negotiations between the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) go well, the MVA may win more than thirty seats in the state.

“Maharashtra will determine whether or not the BJP obtains 400 seats. Maharashtra will play a significant role this time around, according to political analyst Anand Ambekar of Nagpur, even if Uttar Pradesh and Bihar remain the two primary electoral benchmark states for any big party hoping to win Delhi.

He adds another important point, pointing out that if the MVA and VBA could agree on seat-sharing in the state, the alliance might be able to shift the political landscape in favor of the latter, given that Dalits, Buddhists, Muslims, and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) make up a sizable portion of Maharashtra’s population.

The story takes a turn, however, since VBA has been criticizing Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray), a partner in the MVA coalition, for ignoring it during seat-sharing negotiations. A few days before, Prakash Ambedkar had verbally attacked Sanjay Raut, the head of the Shiv Sena (UBT), accusing him of “stabbing” him in the back during the negotiations. The fact that nominations for the state’s first round of voting have already been finalized might further throw off MVA’s hopes of unseating the BJP’s applecart in the state.

This indicates that the five Maharashtra seats up for election in the first phase on April 19 have already been assigned to candidates.

Ambedkar has chosen to support Vikas Thakare, the Congress candidate for Nagpur. He has, however, nominated VBA candidates against the MVA on the other four seats, Chandrapur, Gadchiroli-Chimur, Bhandara-Gondiya, and Ramtek.

Put otherwise, this implies that VBA contenders are probably going to make a better impression than MVA contenders, which will help the BJP overall.

In response to Ambedkar’s accusations, Raut said that negotiations are ongoing with each of the three MVA parties and the VBA. According to analysts, the VBA is opposing the MVA because it is afraid of losing its identity in the eyes of the three main Aghadi constituents: the Congress, the NCP (led by Sharad Pawar), and the Shiv Sena (led by Uddhav Thackeray).

The MVA is attempting to persuade the VBA to rejoin its ranks by holding five stages of voting in Maharashtra.

In the event that negotiations between MVA and VBA break down, the Aghadi will lose the state’s Lok Sabha elections.