Reasons Iran, Syria’s ally, Is Not Entering The Gaza War

Experts noted that despite an attack on Iran’s diplomatic mission in Damascus that was attributed to Israel and raised the possibility of a regional conflict, Syria has managed to stay out of the Gaza War.

The Syrian government led by President Bashar al-Assad is attempting to maintain a careful balance between Iran and Russia, who have supported it during its 13-year civil war and assisted in the reoccupation of lost territory.

Syria is a member of the so-called Axis of Resistance, a coalition of organizations supported by Iran that, since October, has attacked Israel, the main adversary of the Islamic republic, or what are said to be its assets. However, Russia, Syria’s other major ally, has worked to promote stability in the southern part of the country, which borders the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and maintains diplomatic connections with Israel.

A Western ambassador who asked to remain anonymous because he is not permitted to talk to the media said, “The Israelis clearly warned Assad that if Syria was used against them, they would destroy his regime.” Following many attacks on Iranian sites in Syria in recent months—many of which were attributed to Israel—the assault on April 1 destroyed Tehran’s embassy in Damascus and claimed the lives of seven Iranian Revolutionary Guardsmen, including two generals.

Following that incident, Iran on April 13–14 launched its first-ever direct missile and drone attack on Israel, escalating tensions in the area. According to a source close to Hezbollah and a war monitor who spoke to AFP, Iran has also been forced by the assaults to scale down its military presence in southern Syria, particularly in regions that border the Golan.

UAE’S AND RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE
According to Andrew Tabler of the Washington Institute, “Russia and the United Arab Emirates have urged (Assad) to stay away from the conflict.” While Western sanctions are expected to discourage investment, Syria joined the Arab community again last year in an effort to strengthen its links with affluent Gulf governments and raise money for rebuilding. The United Arab Emirates spearheaded the effort to reintegrate Damascus after reestablishing diplomatic relations with Syria in 2018.

Despite a few attacks by forces linked to Hezbollah, Syria seems to have heard the plea from Russia and the United Arab Emirates, as seen by the relative quiet along its border with the Golan Heights. The Golan, which Israel seized from Syria in 1967 and annexed in 1981, has only been the target of 26 missile strikes from Syria since the beginning of the Gaza War, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor.

“Washington and other places interpret the majority’s landing in open spaces as a kind of code that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad wants to stay out of the Gaza conflict,” Tabler added. “Assad is hoping that the West and the Arabs will make up for his self-control, and the Russians are pressuring him in this direction,” he said.

– HINTRY HAMAS TIES
In order to “monitor the ceasefire and promote de-escalation,” Russia’s defense ministry said earlier this month that it had created a second station in the Syrian portion of the Golan. Several Arab cities saw large-scale protests in support of the Palestinians in Gaza, while observers in Damascus reported just a few tiny pro-Palestine gatherings.

Hamas, a Palestinian terrorist organization whose attack on southern Israel on October 7 set off the conflict, has a tense relationship with Syria. A decade after the militants severed their connections with Damascus due to the latter’s crackdown of mostly Sunni demonstrations that precipitated Syria’s civil war, Hamas and Assad made up in 2022.

Hamas has the same ideological background as the Muslim Brotherhood, an Egyptian-born Sunni Islamist organization that Syria views as terrorists. The official said, “The regime despises Hamas and has no desire to support the Muslim Brotherhood, whose triumph could only strengthen their friends in Syria.” Although Hamas said last year that it was beginning a new chapter with the Syrian government, Assad believed it was still “too early” to discuss a return to normalcy.