The Karnataka of 2024 Is Different from the Karnataka of 2019. The Results of the Election Could Surprise Some

On Monday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke at a BJP electoral gathering in Shimoga. In a scathing address, he called Chief Minister Siddaramaiah a “weak” leader who must deal with a lot of people who are keen to impose their will or overthrow him. Modi gave off the impression that the BJP would easily win Karnataka.

Modi was retaliated against by Siddaramaiah, who described him as a “weak PM” who had “surrendered” to BS Yediyurappa and was unable to quell the open rebellion of prominent BJP leader and Shimoga native KS Eshwarappa. In an unusual move, the longtime leader had threatened to run as an independent against BY Raghavendra, the son of BSY and current MP, and had declined to attend the PM’s public gathering.

Not to be deterred, the incumbent Congress, headed by Siddaramaiah and state Congress president DK Shivakumar, is aiming to defeat the BJP in the elections despite pre-poll surveys projecting the party would win just ten seats. It intends to fight the Modi-led BJP head-on, relying on caste alliances, the candidates’ influence, and their five guarantee packages. These elements, it is believed, have the power to undermine the BJP, which is depending only on Modi’s appeal, Hindutva, and Ram Mandir.

The BJP is up against an unprecedented open revolt against its state leadership for the first time since 2014. More than a dozen prominent figures, including several current Members of Parliament, have launched an insurrectionary campaign against Yediyurappa and his other son, BY Vijayendra, who became the Karnataka BJP president a few months ago.

In addition to Eshwarappa, other prominent figures who have publicly expressed their dissatisfaction at not receiving a ticket include former chief minister and Union minister DV Sadananda Gowda, who lost the nomination from Bengaluru North to Union minister and BSY confidante Shobha Karandlaje, Mysore MP Pratap Simha, former ministers JC Madhu Swamy, MP Renukacharya, CT Ravi, and BC Patil, the sitting MP from Koppal Sanganna Karadi, and local BJP leaders from Belagavi. A few of them have even hinted that they may run for office as independents or try to influence the results.

The open uprising seems to have unnerved Vijayendra and BSY, which gives the Congress hope. The establishment party believes that the BJP, without Modi, does not pose a significant danger in Karnataka and that by taking advantage of the unrest, it can seriously harm the future of the saffron party.

In order to guarantee that influential ministers do well in their home districts, the Congress has fielded relatives in at least 12 of the 28 seats available. When choosing the seats, it also took the caste equations into consideration.

The following ministers’ children have been fielded: Priyanka Jarkhiholi from Chikkodi; Mrinal Hebbalkar from Belgaum; Samyukta Patil from Bagalkote; Sagar Khandre from Bidar; and Satish Jarkhiholi from Chikkodi. The ticket has been awarded to Dr. Prabha, the minister’s wife, in Davanagere. Veteran Congress politician and MLA Shamanur Shivashankarappa is also her father-in-law.

The son-in-law of Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, Radhakrishna Doddamani, has been fielded from Gulbarga/Kalaburgi, making it an esteemed seat.

The older sister of Madhu Bangarappa, the minister of education, Geetha Shivarajkumar, has been put up against BY Raghavendra, the son of BSY, in Shimoga. She is also Shivarajkumar’s wife, a famous Kannada actor.

Koppal has issued the ticket to Rajashekhara Hitnal, the brother of MLA Raghavendra Hitnal, and it seems that the Congress has convinced incumbent MLA E Tukaram to run in the neighboring Bellary district.

Mansoor Ali Khan, the son of former Union minister K Rahman Khan, has been fielded in Bengaluru Central; Sowmya Reddy, a former MLA and minister R Ramalingareddy’s daughter, in Bengaluru South; and MV Rajeev Gowda, the son of former Assembly Speaker and MP, in Bengaluru North.

K Jayaprakash Hegde, a former minister and Congress MP, has joined the party again after leaving the BJP to run in the Udupi Chikmagalur seat.

The Congress is highlighting the five promises it made and how well it carried them out after winning the May 2023 Assembly elections. It is using its own commitments to offset the BJP’s Modi pledges.

In an interview with News18, Siddaramaiah insisted that voters—particularly women—will support the party in this, its most difficult election. He said that the Congress will win in 20 seats, disproving every pollster’s estimate.

“The Modi promise is untrue. Just on paper, that is. All five of our major electoral promises have been effectively carried out, and we want to do much more following the elections. “I have no doubt that the recipients will not let us down,” he said.

Additionally, he hopes that the Congress will be supported by a coalition of minorities and castes, including other backward castes, SCs, and STs, against the BJP.

In the Vokkaliga-dominated old Mysore area, DK Shivakumar, who has since become a prominent Vokkaliga caste leader, crushed the JD-S of the HD Deve Gowda dynasty in the previous year’s Assembly elections.

Gowda’s son, the former chief minister, HD Kumaraswamy, formed an alliance with the BJP and secured three Lok Sabha seats for the party in order to prevent the JD-S from collapsing completely. In rural Bengaluru, his brother-in-law, the well-known cardiologist Dr. CN Manjunath, is running on a BJP ticket against Shivakumar’s younger brother, DK Suresh.

However, neither party’s employees are fond of the cooperation. In fact, insiders in Congress anticipate JD-S’s downfall after the election.

Unexpected outcomes might emerge from the election if Shivakumar is able to maintain his caste base and Siddaramaiah retains the majority of OBC, SC/ST, and minority votes.

Recognizing its shortcomings and limits in Karnataka, the BJP is putting a lot of money on the Modi magic to win the most seats. The state will cast ballots on April 26 and May 7 in two parts. June 4 is when the votes will be tallied.

The Congress and JD-S united to fight the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but their combined force was crushed. With a record 25 seats won by the BJP, the Congress and JD-S each only managed one seat.