Has Nitish Kumar Made a Backup Plan? Read the signs, India Bloc

The comments made by KC Tyagi, a spokesman for Janata Dal United (JDU), in the Indian Express on January 8th, hint that Nitish Kumar is not satisfied and that there are significant problems inside the INDIA coalition. Tyagi is a seasoned political figurehead. He is not a careless shooter. In the political world, he is renowned for making calm remarks. His direct assault on the Congress must thus be regarded with great gravity. “We were not pleased with the Congress chief’s response to questions from the media on this convenor question on Saturday,” he stated. Time and ideas are running out for us. We can still make up time. However, Congress must act quickly to create a strong India bloc.”

 

According to Tyagi, the Congress has started its Yatra. Instead, it ought to have been an INDIA Yatra that all of the world’s leading leaders could have taken part in. The Congress planned the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra without consulting any of its allies. We extend our greeting to the Yatra. This is not the right moment to begin. India is perplexed. What happens if elections for the legislature are called very shortly after the Ram Temple opens?

First of all, it must be acknowledged that he cannot make a statement of this kind without first speaking with Nitish Kumar, the leader of the party. Tyagi has singled out two of the Congress’s most influential figures. Regarding the INDIA convenor, he has criticized party president Mallikarjun Kharge, and regarding Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, he has insulted Gandhi. He has successfully implied that the Congress has failed to lead India because the ancient party is not acting quickly enough to develop a narrative that counters the BJP’s Hindutva appeal. Additionally, he has made suggestions that the Congress is acting alone and making decisions without consulting friends. These are significant accusations that might spark a larger crisis inside the opposition group if they are not handled right away.

Being convenor would be the first step towards Nitish Kumar’s goal of becoming prime minister, since it is well known that he is incredibly ambitious. It was expected that after leaving the NDA and forming an alliance with Lalu Yadav, he would eventually pass the reins in Bihar to his deputy Tejashwi Yadav and advance to a more prominent position in national politics. It was widely assumed that Nitish Kumar would be a strong prime ministerial candidate for INDIA and that he would be the best person to take on Narendra Modi.

Nitish Kumar has always been confident in his qualifications for the position. He has served as a state’s chief minister for longer than ten years, just as Modi. He is an OBC (Other Backward Classes) member, much like Modi. It is a Kurmi, Nitish Kumar. After the Yadavs in northern India, Kurmis are the most influential and politically astute caste in the OBC community. His presence has the potential to stop OBCs from joining the BJP, significantly undermining the ruling party in the Hindi-speaking region.

Nitish Kumar is a native of the Hindi belt, in contrast to Kharge, MK Stalin, and Mamata Banerjee. The BJP’s primary constituency is this. In this election of 2019, the BJP secured almost 90% of the seats. The INDIA bloc has to get significant seats in places where Hindi is the primary language if Modi is to be prevented from taking office a third time. In this instance, the Congress and the BJP are engaged in a direct battle. It is thought that if Nitish Kumar is presented as the next prime minister, a sizable portion of OBC voters may be persuaded to support the Congress and other parties, such as the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh.

What then is the issue?

It is this: Nitish Kumar is not really trusted, even within the INDIA bloc. His actions are met with scepticism. It is frequently difficult for even his longtime buddy Lalu Yadav to forecast his next political move. The Chief Minister of Bihar is also thought to be exceedingly conceited and reticent.

Another issue is that Nitish Kumar’s dedication to secularism is questionable. Although he is a socialist in principle, he has never hesitated to associate with the BJP in order to gain political power. In actuality, he has spent more time with the BJP than his former socialist buddies since leaving the Janata Dal in the 1990s. He served as a minister in the government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Then, with the BJP’s assistance, he was appointed Chief Minister of Bihar, a position he held till 2014. After Modi was appointed prime minister, he broke with the BJP and teamed up with Lalu Yadav, a former ally turned adversary. In 2017, after winning the Bihar election jointly, he once more changed affiliations, leaving the RJD and rejoining the BJP. Then, in 2022, another 180 degree turn and a reunion with RJD.

With this background, many believed that Nitish’s forced resignation of Lalan Singh as JDU national party head and his replacement was the beginning of another switcheroo.

It is not without justification that Mamata Banerjee suggested projecting Kharge as the PM face during the December 19 INDIA bloc meeting. That idea was promptly backed by Arvind Kejriwal. Mamata and Kejriwal both aspire to be prime ministers. Their suggestion was interpreted as an effort to ruin Nitish’s prospects.

Mamata Banerjee made an odd decision. She had stated that India shouldn’t field any candidates for prime minister in the 2024 elections, only one day prior to the conference. She gave a surprise the very following day. A prominent representative of the INDIA group informed me that Nitish Kumar being convenor is not something Mamata Banerjee is extremely excited about. Even Stalin, I was told, had doubts, but the Congress approved of his appointment as INDIA convenor. It’s said that the Congress is trying to reach an agreement, and Nitish Kumar’s name may be revealed shortly.

The Congress is aware of Nitish Kumar’s annoyance. Both Kharge and Rahul Gandhi talked with the JDU leader after the INDIA meeting, perhaps in an attempt to appease him.

Nitish is obviously still unhappy at Tyagi’s outburst. It will be less than three months till the general election. The BJP is preparing to ride the Ram Mandir wave and is already in election gear (is it ever off?). The BJP has won three state elections and is feeling quite positive.

The INDIA bloc will not be regarded seriously as a contender if it is not perceived as unified. The Congress-led opposition has to realize that it is facing the most capable electoral apparatus in all of independent India. To beat the BJP, a unique talent will be needed. It will be preferable if they realize this as soon as possible. If not, the conflict will be over before it ever starts.