Can I.N.D.I.A unite the opposition against the BJP under the motto “United They Stand or United They Fall”? Educators Crack

Two historically and politically significant gatherings of two separate coalitions took place on Tuesday in Delhi and Bangalore, two cities over 2,200 kilometers apart, one in the north and the other in the south.

Senior politicians, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Congressman Rahul Gandhi, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, Trinamool Congress Chief Mamata Banerjee, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) convenor Arvind Kejriwal, and others, have made a number of statements criticizing and questioning their political rivals. However, experts and analysts claim that the opposition coalition has just entered the second stage, norming, with the establishment of its leadership.

The “pain points” for the Opposition block, they said, include Maharashtra, West Bengal, Punjab, Delhi, Kerala, and Telangana.

The two coalitions, which have different philosophies, policies, and internal dynamics, met in Bengaluru on Monday to plan for the general elections in 2024. While the BJP-led NDA interacted with one another to create a perception, the Opposition’s coalition, formerly known as the UPA, came up with a new moniker with the same constituents: “INDIA.”

The important and primary areas of focus for both alliances—NDA and INDIA—will be social coalition on the ground, voter math, and cadre chemistry. Senior politicians and political experts told News 18 that the challenge is more about getting the chemistry right on the ground than it is about solving the mathematical equations because parties are split in states like Maharashtra and Bihar and factions of a divided party are vying for control over a particular voter base.

The’storming’ over seat swapping and cadre cohesion will reveal the true narrative, they said.

THE ESSENTIAL FOUR STAGES OF COALITION

Senior members of the opposition believe that by focusing on caste and religious considerations and fighting on issues, Muslims, Yadavs, Dalits, OBCs, and certain tribal voters may band together to support the opposition block across states, which might pose a threat to the BJP-led NDA. As many of them compete against one another in states, the top leaders of the BJP, however, doubt the fundamental concept of seat sharing and the main goal of the Opposition’s coalition.

“When groups like these get together, the first two phases are always formation and norming, which refers to creating an alliance and establishing alliance standards. It’s a sensitive time right now. The third stage, storming, is the most important since it is when the ideas are really brought to life. how you handle the spotlight while facing forth against political opponents. Sandeep Shastri, national coordinator of Lokniti Network and a leading political analyst, noted that all five addresses by top politicians, including Kharge, Banerjee, and Kejriwal, praised the coalition while discussing various concerns.

“So obtaining a shared agenda is difficulty number two. They are unified in their opposition to the BJP, but what is the strong bond that will bind them? Storming is the third step, which covers the seat-sharing arrangement and how they would overcome the political inconsistencies. The fourth and last step is performance. The choice is whether we stand together or collapse together, he said.

Factions and Face

Sandeep Shastri mentioned a potential social coalition made up of Muslims, OBCs, Dalits, and Yadavs and added that establishing “cadre-chemistry” on the ground and guaranteeing “proper vote transfer among the coalition partners in states” would be the most difficult parts.

Shastri said that the NDA or INDIA would find it difficult to govern their cadres and achieve ground-level cohesion. He added, “Internal tensions are there on both parties. Do mathematical concepts foster social cohesion? Now that Sena and NCP have separated houses, it is unclear who would get the Maratha votes. Although the SP and BSP combination initially seemed to be the most powerful social formation and caste alliance, we now know what ultimately transpired in Uttar Pradesh. Vote transfers weren’t made, and the cadres didn’t get together.

Will the opposition party alliance battle among themselves or will they present a united front against Modi? The alliance partners have revealed a new name for the front during the second meeting of the Opposition block, although the shared minimum program has not yet been established. According to a top JD(U) leader, the next meeting would be in Mumbai, where the shared problems on the agenda may be discussed.

“The socialist parties must get sufficient attention since they have stronger grassroots connections. As the government of seven states, Congress is larger than the other institutions in the bloc. Therefore, there must be a correct intention combined with patience and political maturity. We cannot at this point let our political ego stand in the way. The senior leader said, “The first two encounters give us optimism.

Shastri, however, said that the BJP would always want to antagonize the Opposition in order to draw them into the leadership debate and force them to reveal a leader. They will lose the battle before it even begins if they fall victim to the leadership trap. The BJP may see a challenge in 2024 if they choose to go ahead based on a shared minimum agenda and gather their cadres, he said.

IN A NEW BOTTLE, OLD WINE?

These are the same individuals, according to Amit Malviya, who oversees the BJP’s National Information & Technology department and is a member of the National Executive Committee. There has been no change. The UPA is the same. Why did the UPA claim that they needed to abolish the current organization and establish a new one using the same individuals? Why is there a crisis of existence? Why all the fuss over a new name when the characters are the same?

“We fail to understand what the Congress can add to West Bengal when Mamata Banerjee is not willing to cede any space to the Congress or CPI(M),” he said. Will the Congress not fight in Telangana, Punjab, and Delhi? Will there just be LDF candidates running in Kerala? These inquiries have not yet received a response. In 2014 and 2019, we battled the same alliance, he continued.