Opinion | Why 2024 Might Mark a Turning Point for India and Modi

2023 was a historic year for India: the country won the G20 presidency; Chandrayan-3 made history by landing the moon close to the lunar south pole; and its economy grew by 7% amid a globe reeling from a recession and riven by conflict in Gaza and Ukraine.

Although the year started poorly for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Karnataka assembly election, it finished with massive victories in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan.

The Opposition views the 2024 Lok Sabha election with trepidation, which is understandable. It is aware that various family dynasties, who control the majority of Indian political parties, including the Congress, may come to an end if they remain in political obscurity for a further five years.

Leaders of the opposition, including Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, and Arvind Kejriwal, set aside their differences in politics to form the Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.), a coalition of 28 parties.

In2024, would the concept of I.N.D.I.A. resonate with voters? The secret is to share seats. However, discord among I.N.D.I.A. partners is already growing in significant states like West Bengal and Maharashtra.

For instance, Mamata Banerjee, the chief minister of West Bengal, has given the Congress only two of the 42 Lok Sabha seats available in the state. Without consulting the Congress or the NCP under Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena in Maharashtra has declared that it would run for 23 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats. Sharad Pawar and the Gandhis will probably fight that statement vehemently.

The proposal of making Mallikarjun Kharge, the 81-year-old president of the Congress and a Dalit from Karnataka, the prime ministerial representative of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc was proposed by Banerjee and Kejriwal. The opposition wants to make it clear that voters from scheduled castes and those in the south will have their needs met.

Meanwhile, the Ayodhya Ram Mandir’s opening on January 22 will determine the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The Opposition may be stepping into a trap they set for themselves by refusing to attend the inauguration.

THE STORY

The opposition continues to often shape the political and social narrative even with the Modi government’s majority in Parliament. The media and the chattering classes’ retirees are strong allies of the Left, Congress, and Islamist environment.

Over the years, several state and parliamentary elections have been held, with the opposition winning some of them, dispelling the false narrative that Indian democracy is in jeopardy. But the old ecology of agenda-driven media sometimes unearths the cliche. Consider the following recent instance: on Sunday, December 24, 2023, three pieces were published on the same editorial page of a major daily.

First exhibit: What is it like to be a Muslim in India? is the title of an article. The columnist’s article draws heavily on Ziya Us Salam’s recent book, Being Muslim in Hindu India: A Critical View. “Muslims make up 15% of the population, but only 4.9% of state and federal employees, 4.6% of paramilitary forces, 3.2% of IAS, IFS, and IPS employees, and possibly as little as 1% of the Army,” the author states.

The author omits to mention that Muslims make up less than 1% of startup founders yet roughly 30% of prison inmates. The cause? Compared to SC/STs, India’s 220 million Muslims are less developed and more destitute after 70 years of being used as a voting bloc.

The piece concludes with a communal statement that has the potential to incite religious sentiments: “(The book) How does being a Muslim in India compare? may endanger our nation’s integrity and future.

This is terrible journalism, and it has no place in a credible publication.

Exhibit 2: A former governor laments, on the same editorial page, why Indians of various faiths go abroad for work, but he fails to mention the obvious explanation: Indians are still unable to find employment and are frequently compelled to look outside of their country of origin after 190 years of devastating British colonial rule that devastated India while enriching Britain. Like the ecology he lives in, the writer completely misses the point.

Exhibit three: A former BBC India reporter refers to the three new criminal legislation passed last week as “a reversion to the colonial police that (author) Kripal Dhillion wrote about” on the same editorial page.

A number of provisions in the recently enacted crime law eliminate harsh provisions included in the 150-year-old criminal codes that were created for a colonized nation by its colonizer. However, a number of provisions in the new law provide the police more authority than is necessary. They must be changed.

The time for police reforms is clearly past. There has been noncompliance with the seven-point instruction given by the Supreme Court in September 2006 regarding the Prakash Singh case. Since law and order is a state topic, a properly nuanced essay would have brought this up while requesting that states comply with the SC ruling.

The idea behind putting these three stories on one editorial page in one of India’s top newspapers is that the country has for far too long been the victim of false narratives.

On the other hand, it is true that a sizable portion of the media shamelessly supports the administration. The challenge is in striking a balance between scathing but constructive criticism of the Modi administration and a detached appraisal of its accomplishments over the previous almost ten years in office.

THE SUMMARY
What accomplishments are they, and how will they change India by 2024?

Infrastructure comes first. The construction of power plants, metros, roads, bridges, housing, sea terminals, and airports has advanced to a point where it has completely changed society.

Digitalization comes in second. India is becoming the world’s second-most cashless payment society behind China because to its public digital stack, which is driven by the UPI and ONDC. Foreign CEOs visiting India are astonished to see how far behind the West India has fallen.

The third is medical treatment. In addition to generating its own produced vaccine, giving vaccinations to developing nations, and effectively combating the Covid epidemic, India’s Ayushman Bharat health insurance system has made it possible for millions of underprivileged people to obtain free medical care up to Rs. 5 lakh per household.

Technology comes in fourth. Businesses may identify precisely which land parcels are available for new projects by using the Gati Shakti Masterplan online platform, which houses all infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, the government keeps track of the advancement of thousands of public and private infrastructure projects in real time.

Finally, taxes. India’s corporation tax rate reduction to 22% has brought the country closer to the low-tax environments of Singapore and some European nations. In 2023–24, tax income (corporate, personal, customs, and excise) is expected to surpass Rs. 30 lakh crore, which is 15% more than the Union Budget predicts. India’s fiscal situation is steadily improving, with GST receipts trending at an annualized Rs. 20 lakh crore (of which the center’s share is Rs. 11 lakh crore). This represents a return to pre-Covid levels.

Economy is the sixth. India is the largest economy developing at the quickest pace in the world in 2023–24, with a GDP growth rate of 7%. Before 2029, with current rate of growth, India’s economy would rank third in the world. By 2026–2027, India’s merchandise and services exports are probably going to surpass $1 trillion, ranking it as the world’s fourth biggest exporter, after the US, China, and Germany.

RISING OUT OF DEPRIVATION
The GDP of colonial India was a meager Rs. 2.70 lakh crore at the time of independence in 1947. It has increased by 125 times in 76 years to reach Rs. 325 lakh crore in 2023.

India’s per capita income in 2023 will be $9,133 based on purchasing power parity (PPP), which the IMF considers to be the most equitable way to compare living conditions. Although it still pales in comparison to the US per capita income (PPI) of $66,062 in 2023, the difference is closing.

India continues to have terrible sanitation and poverty. Both metrics are becoming better. However, much more work has to be done. The hard job is ahead, with 2024 drawing near.