Two uprisings that altered the political landscape of Maharashtra

Ajit Pawar has led the second insurrection by swearing-in with eight of his party comrades, one year after the Shiv Sena headed by Uddhav Thackeray split after the defection of Eknath Shinde with his 40 allies. According to his aides, they are accompanied by about the same number of NCP MLAs.

The BJP has been successful in causing two divisions in two powerful regional parties in Maharashtra within the course of a year. Even though Uddhav Thackeray lost the party, it is still unclear what will happen to the NCP since Ajit Pawar, like Eknath Shinde, has asserted that his is the original party.

“The two splits’ foundations were laid in 2019,” To prevent the BJP from gaining power, NCP leader Sharad Pawar took the initiative and created the opposition alliance Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi. He enlisted Uddhav Thackeray’s assistance. The BJP leadership subsequently made the decision to punish both of them by removing their leadership abilities. It has now occurred within the last year, according to a key state BJP official who requested anonymity.

Ajit’s uprising is comparable to Shinde’s: Create a group of MLAs with a majority, announce support for the BJP’s administration, and assert your party’s origins. While Shinde was able to seize leadership of the party, what occurs over the next few days will determine if Ajit is able to take control of the NCP, which was founded in 1999 by his uncle.

On June 20, 2022, the day of the legislative council elections in which members of the governing party participated in cross-voting, chief minister Shinde, who served as urban development minister in the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA administration, quit his position. Party sources in the know said that the uprising was thought to have been controlled by the BJP’s central leadership, particularly by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and that it had been brewing for months before to it.

Party sources claim that the failure of the BJP’s effort to form a government with Ajit Pawar in November 2019 is what made Shinde and his men’s uprising successful. “The central leadership handled the separation by more than two-thirds of the members in addition to making sure Shinde had a sizable number of MLAs with him. Although the Sena cadre was not entirely behind him, this provided the insurrection strong legal footing, according to a BJP minister.

After his first effort in November of this year ended in failure, Ajit’s revolt is his second try. It will be necessary to provide data to support his claim that he is a member of the NCP and that his party is the actual one made after his uprising. To escape repercussions under the anti-defection statute, he will need the backing of at least 36 party-affiliated MLAs. Sharad Pawar, the leader of the party, put an end to the first uprising when he was sworn in as the deputy chief minister in November 2019. The MVA, which was then in the works, benefited from the Supreme Court’s decision on the floor test. The difficulty for Ajit Pawar now is to demonstrate his majority inside the party.

Ajit started organising MLAs in April or May. In contrast to 2019, a number of seasoned MLAs, including Chhagan Bhujbal and Dilip Walse-Patil, as well as seasoned figures like Praful Patel, stood with him. The controversy surrounding Pawar’s departure proved to be a setback in his efforts to win over MLAs. This time, he has not said how many MLAs have signed their letters of support, but his advisers maintain that close to 40 out of the 53 party MLAs have done so, according to a senior NCP leader.

While Shinde was able to take control of the party, Ajit may not find it as simple. In its ruling on the Shiv Sena split, the Supreme Court noted that the number of elected officials was insufficient to determine who would run the party. Ajit will thus need to demonstrate that the bulk of the party structure is on his side. He may find it to be a difficult task.

Both Shinde and Ajit will need the backing of the general public.

“Today, the betrayal of the electorate and their mandate is more concerning than who orchestrated the divisions and who benefitted from them. Every political party has offended the electorate because they have violated their trust and mandate. The state should hold new elections, according to the people. “The second revolt of Shinde was organised when the BJP recognised that the Shinde group was has not been able to deliver to expectations,” said Mumbai-based political analyst Prakash Akolkar. “The first rebellion of Shinde arose out of the vengeance politics of BJP to teach Thackeray a lesson.