Congress and SP Will Concentrate On 24 “Muslim Seats” In Uttar Pradesh During The 2024 Lok Sabha Elections
Expectations are high after the SP-Congress agreement as the parties want to boost INDIA in 24 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh with a majority of minority communities and to cement the Muslim vote base. The state has 80 LS seats. Muslims make up 19% of Uttar Pradesh’s population, and as their percentage ranges from 20 to 50%, their voting patterns might have an impact on the results in 24 seats. Therefore, it was crucial from a strategic standpoint to unite the Muslim voting base in order to finalize the partnership.
Party officials knew that the BJP-led NDA may benefit from a divide in minority support. The BJP gained considerable ground in the 2014 Lok Sabha election as it emerged victorious in Muslim-majority Rampur, Sambhal, Amroha, and Moradabad. Previously, the seats were strongholds of the SP and the Congress. In Muslim-heavy western Uttar Pradesh in 2019, the SP-BSP coalition won 15 seats, or a majority, including Bijnor, Amroha, Moradabad, Rampur, and Sambhal. The BSP chief Mayawati has chosen to run on her own this time, changing the electoral landscape.
A significant number of OBC candidates have been filed by SP.
Throughout the Congress’s UP Jodo Yatra and the SP’s PDA Yatra, which both passed through areas with a majority of Muslims in western and central Uttar Pradesh, the outreach to the Muslim community was carefully organized. Leaders of both parties also interacted with powerful people and Muslim clerics in the Rohilkhand area. In addition to Muslim votes, the partnership between the SP and Congress hopes to win over supporters from other backward classes, including Kurmi, Shakya, Saini, Maurya, and Kushwaha.
The SP has notably nominated a sizable number of OBC candidates, demonstrating its dedication to forging larger socioeconomic coalitions. The coalition has high hopes for its future in the Etawah-Mainpuri belt, which is historically referred to as the Yadav land and includes the constituencies of Firozabad, Kannauj, Etawah, Mainpuri, Etah, Farrukhabad, and Mathura. In this region, Muslims and Yadavs have considerable sway. The coalition is strengthened by the recent addition of Shivpal Yadav and the Congress, which improves its election chances in the area, despite previous difficulties, such as internal discord within the Yadav family.
Mayawati’s views on independence
However, Mayawati’s independent attitude raises questions since it may result in a three-way race and split the anti-BJP vote share. While a sizable portion of Muslim voters are expected to support the SP-Congress alliance, observers believe the BSP’s independent campaign might upset their electoral calculations due to its appeal to the Dalit-Muslim community. Achieving a balanced ticket allocation to accommodate OBCs, Dalits, and Muslims is also a challenging issue for the SP, given the complex caste dynamics at play.
Religious demography have a big influence on election results in Muslim-majority Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Rampur, Sambhal, and Amroha seats. The fight for UP becomes more intense as the election landscape takes form and different political entities try to strengthen their base of support in the face of changing alliances and electoral math.
