arduous job for NDA to overcome anti-incumbency and replicate 2019 performance

Patna: The governing NDA, which is made up of the JD (U), BJP, and LJP (RV), must have been concerned by the relatively low attendance in the nine constituencies in the first two phases of the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections in Bihar, which contain 40 parliamentary seats. This is because the opposition India alliance has nothing to lose. In actuality, PM Narendra Modi and the governing party have a difficult challenge in trying to hold onto the 39 seats the coalition gained in the state’s 2019 elections.

In Bihar, the BJP-led coalition would not have won just 11 seats compared to the UPA’s 29 out of 40 seats in 2004 (turnout 58.02%) or in 2009 (44.47%), when the NDA won 32 seats and the UPA only eight. This is assuming that low turnout had any bearing on the performance of the NDA or Cong-led UPA.

Even though voter participation was 57.33% in 2019, 1.07% higher than in 2014 (56.28%), when the BJP-led NDA won 31 seats and the UPA won seven, the BJP-led NDA won 39 and the Congress won one seat in Bihar.

While political analysts dismiss any harm to the NDA candidates in Bihar due to low voter turnout, citing the heatwave and marriage season as the causes, observers concur that voters’ interest and enthusiasm for a change in the national government and national security issues stemming from the Balakot airstrike in Pakistan and the Pulwama attack in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014 and 2019, respectively, are lacking in the 2024 parliamentary election. These sentimental concerns and the Ram temple in Ayodhya created a perfect storm for the BJP to win elections.

This time, even the BJP has been searching for stories to support its “Abki baar, 400 paar” slogan. This is to put pressure on the opposition alliance, which is led by the Congress, whose leaders’ remarks on inheritance tax, for example, give PM Narendra Modi and the BJP’s upper management the justification to corner the opposition in the name of their strategy of appeasing Muslims in order to win over Hindu voters.

The BJP and PM Modi are doing everything in their power to overcome the saturation level they have reached in many states, including 39 out of 40 seats in Bihar, with a 90 to 98% strike rate in the 2019 polls. Four to five percent of floating votes have the potential to sway the poll scale in favor of or against any political party or combination. That is depriving the ruling class of their slumber.

For this reason, both PM Modi and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar are urging people to cast ballots in big numbers. In reality, Nitish motivated his party workers at the panchayat level on Saturday in order to guarantee a high turnout and improve cooperation among the NDA’s partners.

Nine of Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats have now seen voting, and the NDA has taken eight of them in 2019, with the exception of Kishanganj, which is mostly Muslim. Though they acknowledge that even if their candidates win, the margin will be considerably smaller in Aurangabad and Katihar, and Nawada and Gaya may be extremely tight races, the NDA insiders are convinced that they will keep Bhagalpur, Purnia, Banka, and Jamui.

The national spokesperson for JD (U), Rajib Ranjan, rules out any anti-incumbency element and declares victory in each of the first nine seats, attributing Nitish’s success to his “nyay ke sath vikas” and his pristine image. “People are supporting the NDA candidates because they like the work that Nitish has done over the last 18 years on roads, farms, electricity, jobs, and farmers, while the previous 10 years have seen the benefits of PM Modi’s plans for women, farmers, and other societal segments. Eighty thousand farmers in the state have benefited from the PM’s Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana, while 1.18 crore women in the state have received free LPG connections, which have helped them quit smoking. The anti-incumbency effect has been neutralized by our women’s empowerment programs, including employment quotas, panchayats, and urban local bodies, according to Rajib.

However, Mritunjay Tiwari, an RJD spokesperson, said, “This time, there is no Modi magic.” In the nine seats where voting has already taken place, we are winning. People are furious with the federal government as well as the state government, which is why BJP and NDA candidates are suffering from acute anti-incumbency syndrome.